Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 18, 2025

WHO’S HOT

Except for the curious case of Owen Almighty, it was a relatively quiet week for Kentucky Derby aspirants. Some 24 horses remain under consideration according to Churchill Downs, including Journalism, the 3-1 early favorite on the Daily Racing Form Derby Watch Top 20 odds line by David Aragona.

Journalism is scheduled to work this weekend at Santa Anita, his first drill since winning the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April. 5. Physically, he looks outstanding in morning gallops. “He’s doing very well,” understated trainer Michael McCarthy said early this week.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2025: Top contenders, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

Three were added or re-added to Derby Watch – Final Gambit, Madaket Road, and Owen Almighty. Final Gambit, upset winner of the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks, has never raced on dirt. Madaket Road, fourth in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, was re-added, though 1 1/4 miles seems like a reach. Owen Almighty, a dead-heat sixth in the Grade 1 Blue Grass, rejoined the Derby picture Wednesday morning. He qualifies on points.

WHO’S NOT

Common sense sometimes takes a back seat in Derby season. Case in point: Owen Almighty.

Despite reservations by trainer Brian Lynch regarding the colt’s ability to stay 1 1/4 miles, and despite a subpar effort in the Blue Grass, Owen Almighty is back in the picture.

River Thames and Heart of Honor will not contest the Derby. River Thames, third in the Grade 1 Blue Grass, will train toward the Grade 1 Preakness on May 17. Plans are pending for Heart of Honor, runner-up in the U.A.E. Derby.

The Derby points system is under increasing scrutiny. Churchill reduced points for the Santa Anita Derby by 25 percent owing to only five starters. Six starters were required for a full points allotment. As a result, Santa Anita Derby runner-up Baeza earned only 37.5 points after producing one of the season’s top performances by a 3-year-old. As of midweek, Baeza lacked sufficient points to make the Kentucky Derby field and is currently an also-eligible. The Derby draw is April 26.

By contrast, Churchill awarded full points (100 winner, 50 runner-up) for the one-turn Virginia Derby, the synthetic-surface Jeff Ruby Steaks, and the overseas U.A.E. Derby in Dubai. A tweet by NYRA commentator Andy Serling summed up the points dilemma that effectively penalized California horses. “Should a rule exist that discourages CA-based horses to race in CA?”

ON THE BUBBLE

As of midweek, four Derby candidates lack points to make the body of the race. In order of points preference, the also-eligibles are Built, Neoequos, Render Judgment, and Baeza. Built could run instead in the Pat Day Mile. Render Judgment also is not a confirmed Derby entrant.

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