Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 11, 2025

WHO’S HOT

Journalism solidified Kentucky Derby favoritism by overcoming trouble to win the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. His Derby Watch odds drop to 3-1 by Daily Racing Form linemaker David Aragona. Santa Anita Derby runner-up Baeza finished more than eight lengths clear of third, but he earned only 37.5 points due to limited points in a five-horse field. His Derby status is uncertain.

Rodriguez ran to his improved workouts and won the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct with a front-running rail trip. His margin – 3 1/2 lengths – was deceptive. The runner-up Grande lost ground start to finish and ran as well as Rodriguez. Both head to Louisville in peak form. Rodriguez drops to 10-1 third choice on Derby Watch. Sovereignty is the second choice at 8-1.

Burnham Square took advantage of a fast-early, slow-late race shape and rallied from last to win the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes. Burnham Square wore down pacesetter East Avenue, and River Thames finished third. Burnham Square drops to 15-1.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2025: Top contenders, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

WHO’S NOT

Citizen Bull did not get his coveted soft-pace trip in the Santa Anita Derby. He finished fourth, beaten almost 10 lengths. Citizen Bull is most effective when he is loose on the lead, an unlikely scenario in the Kentucky Derby. Barnes finished last in the Santa Anita Derby and will not run in the Kentucky Derby. Captain Cook, favored in the Wood, finished a distant fourth and is unlikely for the Kentucky Derby. Same with Wood sixth-place finisher Sand Devil. Owen Almighty and Chancer McPatrick finished out of the money in the Blue Grass. Neither is likely for the Derby.

Flood Zone, the decisive winner of the Grade 3 Gotham in March at Aqueduct, finished seventh in the Group 2 UAE Derby in Dubai. According to the Emirates Racing Authority stewards report, Flood Zone bled. The report stated an “endoscopic examination revealed a degree of EIPH [exercise-induced pulmonary hemorrhage] that may have affected the performance.”

ON THE BUBBLE

Baeza, the Santa Anita Derby runner-up, needs multiple defections to make the Kentucky Derby. He ranks 27th on the points list, and only 20 can start. Final Gambit qualifies on points but has never raced on dirt. His Derby status is unannounced. Madaket Road, fourth in the Florida Derby, ranks 23rd on points.

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