Kentucky Derby: The waiting is the hardest part for those on bubble

The answer was succinct, and honest. Asked Wednesday morning if Dream Shake would run in the Kentucky Derby if he could get in, trainer Pete Eurton said, “I don’t know what we’re going to do yet.”

It’s a decision he and his owners – and several others currently on the outside looking in – are likely to face. As of Wednesday, 2 1/2 weeks out from the May 1 Kentucky Derby but less than two weeks from entry day April 27, several horses currently in the top 20 on points are uncertain to run, meaning Dream Shake – currently on the bubble – and several right behind him have a potential realistic pathway to the gate on Derby Day.

That is, if their connections want it.

Already this year, horses like Proxy, Rebel’s Romance, and Weyburn have been pulled from the race even though they would have had sufficient points to make the field. Minor injuries took out Greatest Honour and Life Is Good.

That list could grow. Three horses currently in the top 20 are not certain to run, led by Concert Tour, who suffered his first career loss Saturday when third as the heavy favorite in the Arkansas Derby.

On Wednesday, his trainer, Bob Baffert, said Concert Tour was “still in but on fence,” adding he wants to “see how he trains next week” at Churchill Downs before making a final call. Concert Tour headed straight to Churchill Downs from Oaklawn, which was his planned itinerary prior to the Arkansas Derby.

Panadol, runner-up in the United Arab Emirates Derby, is not certain to travel for the race, with Churchill Downs officials expecting a final decision on his status no later than early next week.

Rombauer, third in the Blue Grass Stakes, also is on the fence. He earned a free roll in the second leg of the Triple Crown, the May 15 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico, via a Win and You’re In victory in the El Camino Real Derby, and he could go straight to that race rather than first run in the Derby.

Some points lists have both Crowded Trade and Highly Motivated in the top 20, but Daily Racing Form is counting only Highly Motivated, since, as trainer Chad Brown said last weekend, he is intended for the race and only his defection would potentially move in Crowded Trade. Therefore, on Daily Racing Form’s list of potential contenders, Dream Shake is currently 21st.

“We’ll have to see. He’s going to breeze Saturday,” Eurton said from Santa Anita. “There’s other races we’ve been talking about, like the Pat Day Mile.”

The Pat Day Mile is on the Derby undercard May 1. It’s likely a more suitable spot for a horse who has raced just three times, only debuted in February, and was a distant third last time out in the Santa Anita Derby, behind Kentucky Derby contenders Rock Your World and Medina Spirit. But no decision has been made yet.

Keeping an even closer eye on proceedings are the connections of O Besos, who is next on the points list after Dream Shake. He would definitely run in the Derby if he can get in, and that prospect is growing increasingly more likely. O Besos, whose sire Orb won the Derby in 2013, was third most recently in the Louisiana Derby, behind Kentucky Derby contenders Hot Rod Charlie and Midnight Bourbon.

After O Besos is Get Her Number, who also would run if he can get in. He needs defections from three horses currently above him on the points list to make it, which is not an unrealistic scenario.

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Owing to the field being in flux, several riding assignments are still to be decided. Florent Geroux has been riding both Mandaloun and Caddo River for Brad Cox, and though he’s expected to ride Mandaloun, no final decision has been made yet. Caddo River was second in the Arkansas Derby on Saturday.

“He ran big. We were very proud of his effort,” Cox said.

Todd Pletcher said he was going to wait a little longer before deciding on a rider for Sainthood, a position he’s taken in the past with some of his Derby longshots. If something unforeseen happened to the mount of a top rider between now and entry day, Pletcher would be in position to secure that rider by not making an early commitment.

Among the jockeys scheduled to be at Churchill Downs on Derby weekend, but still without a confirmed Derby mount, is Junior Alvarado.

Eurton said he had received texts from “three or four” agents inquiring about Dream Shake. Those inquiries may turn out to be moot. But with developments trending toward horses with as few as 20 points getting in, it can’t hurt to ask.

– additional reporting by David Grening and Mary Rampellini