Kentucky Derby picture becoming more clear

After 35 races in which horses could earn points toward a berth in the Kentucky Derby on May 2, the prospective field is largely set, though the final composition of the maximum 20-horse field could undergo a few tweaks over the next 2 1/2 weeks, since there are a handful of horses currently in the body of the race whose status is cloudy.

What is clear-cut, though, is that this race goes through trainer Bob Baffert, who holds a powerful one-two punch with American Pharoah and Dortmund, and also has One Lucky Dane for significant support. American Pharoah won the last of the scoring races Saturday, with a romp in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park that stamps him as the ante-post favorite for the Derby 19 days out.

The Arkansas Derby was one of two scoring races run Saturday, along with the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. Divining Rod won the Lexington, a 10-point victory that gives him 20 points overall, a total that might very well end up in play by the time the Derby is drawn April 29. But Roy Jackson, who bred and owns Divining Rod along with his wife, Gretchen, squashed any thought he might run if he could get in quickly following the Lexington.

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American Pharoah got a Beyer Speed Figure of 105 for his victory in the Arkansas Derby under Victor Espinoza, who won last year’s Derby on California Chrome.

“He delivered,” Baffert said. “I think what made more of an impression than just the margin was the way Victor was able to shut down, relax, and settle off [leader Bridget’s Big Luvy]. He rated kindly.”

American Pharoah traveled Monday to Churchill Downs, where Baffert said he is likely to have just one workout in advance of the Derby. There’s really not much that needs to be done with American Pharoah. He got his two preps out of the way on an accelerated training schedule.

“We’re going to wrap him in bubble wrap,” Baffert said Monday.

Baffert said he had yet to decide when he was going to send Dortmund and One Lucky Dane to Kentucky from California. It could be as early as Wednesday, as late as April 26. He said assistant trainer Jim Barnes was at Churchill Downs “doing reconnaissance.”

Scoreboard watching is what those on the bubble will be doing in upcoming weeks. The Derby allows for a 20-horse field, though as many as four also-eligibles are allowed at entry time, too. As of Monday, the point cutoff was at 30, though Bolo, currently ranked 20th with 30 points, is not certain for the race. In addition, Upstart, ninth on the points list with 76 points, missed a work last week when he spiked a temperature.

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Currently ranked 21st on the points list – thus making him the next one in if someone in the top 20 defects – is Madefromlucky, who was fourth in the Arkansas Derby. Todd Pletcher, his trainer, said Monday that he had not yet spoken with the owners of Madefromlucky to see if they would want to run if he can get in.

Madefromlucky, like Bolo, has 30 points, but is ranked behind Bolo because he has fewer earnings in non-restricted stakes, the tiebreaker.

Ocho Ocho Ocho also has 30 points, but he is ranked 19th, above both Bolo and Materiality, owing to his Delta Downs Jackpot windfall. He is scheduled to work Wednesday at Santa Anita, said trainer Jim Cassidy, who said the riding assignment for the Derby was currently undecided, but would not be Santiago Gonzalez, who rode him to a third-place finish in the Blue Grass.

Both Keen Ice, ranked 22nd with 22 points, and Frammento, ranked 23rd with 20 points, would definitely run if they can get into the field.

– additional reporting byMarty McGee, Mary Rampellini, and Mike Welsch