Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Improbable

Improbable
City Zip–Rare Event, by A.P. Indy
Bred in Kentucky by St. George Farm and G. Watts Humphrey Jr. ($110,000 Keeneland November weanling purchase by Taylor Made Sales; $200,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase by Maverick Racing and China Horse Club)

The influx of California-based runners rerouted to this weekend’s Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn is led by the Bob Baffert-trained duo of champion Game Winner and Grade 1 winner Improbable, both unbeaten. Improbable, last seen winning the Los Alamitos Futurity, represents perhaps the best chance yet for late sire City Zip to record a classic winner.

City Zip won eight stakes, highlighted by a dead heat with Yonaguska in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at seven furlongs. His eclectic stud career has been highlighted by both sprinters and routers on a variety of surfaces. He is the sire of Eclipse Award champion female turf horse Dayatthespa and Canadian Horse of the Year Catch a Glimpse, who turned in virtuoso two-turn performances in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf and Juvenile Fillies Turf, respectively, to secure their championships. Catch a Glimpse went on to capture the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks at 1 1/4 miles. City Zip also sired Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Work All Week and Filly and Mare Sprint winner Finest City, who both earned divisional Eclipse Awards.

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Collected won the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at 1 1/4 miles and finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. City Zip’s other top runners included Grade 1-winning sprinters Bustin Stones and Palace; Grade 1-winning turf-route females Personal Diary and Zipessa; and inaugural Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner Bulletin.

Rare Event won on both dirt and turf, with all her wins coming at a mile or longer. Her first two dams, stakes winners Our Rite of Spring and Turkish Tryst, also scored all their wins at a mile or longer, and Turkish Tryst won at 1 1/2 miles. Our Rite of Spring is a half-sister to Hard Spun, who won the Grade 1 King’s Bishop at seven furlongs but placed in two classics and won multiple graded stakes around two turns. This is the extended female family of 1974 Preakness and Belmont stakes winner and champion Little Current.

A.P. Indy, a classic winner and the sire of American classic winners Bernardini and Rags to Riches, is a leading broodmare sire and a stamina influence. Champions out of his daughters include Royal Delta, Wait a While, and Game Winner, who joins stablemate Improbable in Arkansas.