Kentucky Derby 2022: Bubble horses await decisions on Early Voting, Morello

After 37 races spread over 210 days, everyone with designs on the Kentucky Derby knows where they sit. For those in the top 20 on points, they’re in, holding their breath that nothing untoward bubbles forth. For those just outside the top 20, they’re hoping a spot opens before the race is run at Churchill Downs May 7. The door isn’t quite shut. Yes, we’re saying there’s a chance.

That’s because two of the horses in the top 20, Early Voting and Morello, are not certain to run in the Derby. Their status will impact, in order, Pioneer of Medina and In Due Time, who are next on the points list, ranked 21st and 22nd, respectively, following the Lexington Stakes last Saturday at Keeneland.

Those are among the many scenarios for the Derby field that will be worked out over the next fortnight. Final entries are due May 2, and posts are drawn that day for the 20 in the body of the race. There are up to four also-eligibles allowed at entry time, but getting into the 20-horse gate at entry time is paramount, because the also-eligibles would only get in via scratch by 9 a.m. Eastern May 6, and would get the far outside stalls.

In addition, several riding assignments are still to be nailed down, and at this point many trainers prefer to wait, figuring whoever they could get now they could get later, and if they don’t commit now, they’re in play if someone more desirable comes open by entry day.

No one’s wishing ill on anyone, but road apples happen.

For now, the spotlight is on Early Voting and Morello, 14th and 15th, respectively, on the points list.

Early Voting was second most recently in the Wood Memorial to Mo Donegal. His trainer, Chad Brown, earlier this week said he was “leaning” toward awaiting the Preakness, the second leg of the Triple Crown at Pimlico on May 21, but said no final decision had been made.

There’s precedence for Brown and owner Seth Klarman to behave this way. In 2017, their colt Cloud Computing, like Early Voting, made his third start in the Wood Memorial – he finished third – then was kept out of the Derby to point for the Preakness, which he won.

Morello was undefeated in three races heading into the Wood Memorial, which was designed to determine his aptitude at two turns. But he lost all chance at the start with a poor break, so nothing was learned. His trainer, Steve Asmussen, said no decision would be made until Morello works either Sunday or Monday, which would be his first drill since the Wood Memorial.

Both Brown and Asmussen have far better-regarded runners for the Derby in, respectively, Zandon and Epicenter, but those colts are not owned by the same people who campaign Early Voting and Morello. Still, both trainers are known for the realistic placing of their runners, and they attract, and retain, clientele of similar ilk.

Pioneer of Medina is on the bubble, and he will definitely run if he can get in. He was third in his final Derby prep, the Louisiana Derby, behind Derby runners Epicenter and Zozos.

Pioneer of Medina has 25 points, one more than In Due Time, who was third in the Lexington. In Due Time, though, is fortunate to be in that spot. He earned 20 points in his prior start, the Fountain of Youth, in which he finished second after causing an accident that resulted in his rider, Paco Lopez, being suspended for 14 racing days. But Gulfstream Park’s stewards did not disqualify In Due Time. Had they done so, he would have a mere 4 points, and would have no chance of being in the Derby.

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If both Pioneer of Medina and In Due Time get in, next up would be Ethereal Road, who was fourth in the Lexington.

Churchill Downs has set aside spots for horses exiting two other series, one in Europe, the other in Japan, but no horses are using those routes for this year’s race. There is a Japanese runner, Crown Pride, but he qualified via the 100 points he earned for winning the United Arab Emirates Derby, part of the main 37-race points-scoring series.

Pioneer of Medina is among those who would need a rider if he gets in. Tyler Gaffalione, who rode him in the Louisiana Derby, has the mount on Florida Derby winner White Abarrio in the Derby.

Tawny Port, the Lexington winner, and Zozos also have not had a rider for the Derby secured by trainer Brad Cox, who said he was going to sit tight for now. Both were ridden in their most recent starts by Florent Geroux, who is sticking with Arkansas Derby winner Cyberknife, also trained by Cox.