Question: If the traditional past performances published by Daily Racing Form already include most handicapping essentials, are online DRF Formulator PPs even necessary? Actually, they are not, which is a peculiar statement considering this column is intended to highlight key features in Formulator and illustrate their applicability to the Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs. (As the DRF Race of the Day on Saturday, free DRF Formulator past performances for the Kentucky Derby are available here.) But horseplayers get flooded with data. DRF hard-copy PPs provide insight to condition, allow identification of the fastest horse measured in Beyer Speed Figures, and show the class at which a horse is competitive. It is all there in black and white. Well, most of it. The thing is, some essential information cannot possibly be offered in print format, things like video replays, track bias that might have influenced performance, and quality of competition a horse faced. And while there is no substitute for traditional PPs, bettors whose decisions are based on the most relevant handicapping data also seek supplemental information. Formulator provides both – the basics, and the supplement. :: Get Kentucky Derby Betting Strategies for exclusive wager recommendations, contender profiles, pedigree analysis, and more This will address three top Kentucky Derby contenders and apply tools in Formulator, starting with the favorite. Essential Quality won all three starts last year, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to emerge as the top 2-year-old of 2020. But this is a new year, with a new question – is Essential Quality still the best of his crop? Considering his recent rivals, it is a fair question. Essential Quality launched his 2021 campaign crushing the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, but the subsequent performances of those that he beat offer little endorsement to the quality of his win. Formulator allows users to examine race records of the competition, before and after. Click the race date in Essential Quality’s PPs, and the race chart pops up. Click each runner’s name, and their entire history pops up including next-out performances. Southwest runner-up Spielberg finished eighth next out, Jackie’s Warrior has not run since (entered in race 8 on Saturday), the fourth-place finisher has not run back, the fifth- and sixth-place finishers returned to finish fifth and sixth again. The last-place finisher finished second in two allowance races. Essential Quality defeated a modest field. Okay, fine. He won the Southwest by more than four lengths. Surely, he beat a tougher field next out in the Grade 2 Blue Grass at Keeneland, right? He won by a neck; none of his rivals ran back. So, what about their form going in? Same exercise. By clicking race date and runner’s name in the chart that pops up, one can assess the competition. The runner-up, Highly Motivated (entered in Kentucky Derby), was coming off a third in a Grade 3 and had never run two turns. Third-place Rombauer entered off a minor stakes win on synthetic; his best Beyer was 85. Fourth-place Hidden Stash (Derby entrant) was graded stakes-placed, albeit with an 83 best. Keepmeinmind (Derby entrant) ran poorly in his only start this season, as did sixth-place Sittin On Go. Seventh-place Hush of a Storm won a synthetic-surface stakes race; the eighth- and ninth-place finishers were maiden winners. :: DRF's Kentucky Derby Headquarters: Contenders, latest news, past performances, analysis, and more Based on the modest competition, neither recent win by Essential Quality confirms he is the best of 2021. This is not to knock the undefeated colt. Formulator form comparison only suggests he still has much to prove, and his Derby morning line is just 2-1. That illustrates a main challenge bettors face. The more closely one looks, the more potential flaws one finds. This is not anti-Essential Quality, only an illustration that Formulator allows bettors more information than can be viewed in hard-copy PPs. Same with undefeated Rock Your World, 5-1 second choice on the Derby line. His attributes are clear and include a front-running romp last out in the Santa Anita Derby, his first start on dirt. Rock Your World made the lead on the rail, and he was gone. The question hard-copy PPs cannot answer is whether he benefitted by the surface on April 3, Santa Anita Derby Day. How does one know? Formulator allows examination of every other race on the card, after clicking the date of Rock Your World’s last start. The “Race Chart Archive” button is accessible to the right of “Santa Anita R8”. The archive allows access to any chart, including all three Santa Anita dirt routes on April 3. While the word “track bias” is tossed around, the archive allows an individual to determine the extent of the bias. Races 2, 6, and 8 were the dirt routes on April 3. In race 2, a $50,000 claiming starter at one mile, King Abner and Zestful went head and head through a torrid 46.35-second opening half. King Abner “dueled from the inside,” according to the footnotes. The race was ready-made for a closer, right? Wrong. King Abner won by a head after he and Zestful ding-donged throughout. They finished four lengths clear of third, and no closer made up any ground. Speed was good. Race 6 was the Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks, won by rail-tripper Soothsay. The pace of the 1 1/16-mile race was slow; her trip was ideal. Stretching out from a debut win in a maiden sprint, she saved ground, “bid inside near the seven-sixteenths . . . vied along the rail” and won by a half-length. Perhaps the rail was golden? :: Get DRF Clocker Reports for the Kentucky Derby and Oaks cards to access exclusive insights from morning training Rock Your World made the lead and the rail in the Santa Anita Derby, and he crushed. Was he propelled by a track bias that favored inside speed? Or maybe he and rail-skimming winners King Abner and Soothsay all just happened to be the best horse in their respective races. The one certainty is surface did not compromise Rock Your World. It may have helped him. This is based on a Formulator review of dirt routes on Santa Anita Derby Day. Again, this is not to knock Rock Your World. It only suggests he has more to prove Saturday at Churchill Downs, where he may or may not get similarly advantageous conditions. Finally, third choice Known Agenda, whose 2 3/4-length victory in the Grade 1 Florida Derby looks good on paper. Was it fast enough? As impressive as it looks on paper? Video replays accessible in Formulator allow individual interpretation. By clicking the race date of Known Agenda’s last start, the chart pops up. Directly above odds of the runners is the “Race Replay” button. Known Agenda had improved in his previous start with the addition of blinkers. In the Florida Derby, he tucked inside, took dirt, angled outside with a crack of the whip at the quarter pole, lugged in slightly, and drew away. Good win, not great. The video also reveals runner-up Soup and Sandwich failed to switch leads and shows odds-on Greatest Honour unresponsive after a mildly compromising trip. The point is, Known Agenda defeated rivals that did not truly fire. :: Dig deeper into this year’s Kentucky Derby with free access to DRF Formulator Furthermore, the 94 Beyer earned by Known Agenda is well below the Kentucky Derby par, which is 103. That number is published in Formulator and DRF hard-copy PPs. As a general rule, horses “qualify” on speed if they have run within five points of par. The Beyer-par guideline is not a hard-and-fast rule, merely general protocol. Likewise, the soft competition Essential Quality faced this year is not an indictment of the Derby favorite, nor does the perceived bias that benefitted Rock Your World mean he is a toss. For the record, my top three choices, in order, are Known Agenda, Rock Your World, and Essential Quality. But after reviewing supplemental information in Formulator, it is clear no favorite is rock solid. If the 2021 Kentucky Derby is won by a crazy longshot, that will be no surprise.