Kentucky Derby 2020: Mike Welsch's picks and analysis

There is certainly never any percentage in backing odds-on favorites in 18-horse fields as will be the case with TIZ THE LAW in this year’s Kentucky Derby. But after watching up close and personal his body of work throughout this crazy 3-year-old campaign and the manner in which he has continued to flourish in the weeks since his eye-popping effort in the Runhappy Travers, it’s hard to side against the clear-cut leader of the division. Tiz the Law appears only to need a clean run to assert his dominance once again. That scenario seems all the more likely after he avoided what could have been a potentially compromising inside post position draw Tuesday.

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With the odds-on favorite as the key, finding some value to fill out the gimmicks is perhaps the best way to approach this year’s Derby from a wagering standpoint. One horse who might fit that bill is NY TRAFFIC who has improved from a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint with each succeeding start at 3 and comes off his best yet when falling just inches short of nailing heavily favored Authentic in the Haskell. Ny Traffic continues to train well coming out of the race and figures right in the mix, especially if having one more forward move in the tank.

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Since this is the Kentucky Derby, after all, it’s hard to leave anything trained by Bob Baffert out of the equation with AUTHENTIC and Thousand Words both appearing to be sitting on peak performances from the looks of their recent morning activity in Southern California. Authentic could prove the controlling speed if able to leave running from his outside post. His Beyer Figures also continue to head in the right direction on a regular basis.

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ENFORCEABLE is another price horse with a chance to insert himself into the gimmicks underneath the favorite returning to his home course and with a couple of stellar works under the twin spires within a six-day span coming into the race. He was poorly posted on several occasions in key Derby preps earlier in the year, but gets an inside draw that might be beneficial to his running style on Saturday.