Kentucky Derby 2020: Mike Beer's picks and analysis
TIZ THE LAW was always going to be the shortest price in the 2020 Kentucky Derby following four straight major wins as a 3-year-old, including commanding victories in the Belmont Stakes and the Travers. But the late defections of talented rivals Caracaro and Art Collector, two colts possessing similar forward running styles, help the favorite more than anyone else in this field.
Some may focus on the fact that Tiz the Law’s lone defeat came over the Churchill Downs surface and use that as a reason to look elsewhere for value, and there is nothing wrong with viewing the race that way. As handicappers and bettors, we are supposed to be looking for reasons to play against horses at short prices, no matter who they are.
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Even with excuses at the ready for that lone loss – sloppy track, difficult inside trip – Tiz the Law didn’t necessarily appear to be a standout earlier this year. While easily handling weaker in the Holy Bull and Florida Derby in modest time, he seemed to be leaving the door open for someone to improve enough to overtake him at the top of the division before reaching the rescheduled Kentucky Derby in September. Not only has that not happened, but Tiz the Law has been the one to find significant improvement through the summer.
With the distance question asked and answered, and the fast race now firmly in pocket, Tiz the Law is clearly the horse to beat on this first Saturday in September.
The two California invaders drawn outside, HONOR A. P. and Authentic, will garner support, and justifiably so. I prefer Honor A. P. because he gets more ground to work with after making two of his three starts in stakes company going 1 1/16 miles. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that the best race he has run also happens to be his lone start at nine furlongs.
Authentic did not impress in his desperate Haskell victory last time, and he may be up against it as a need-the-lead type stretching out again with speed to his inside.
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MAX PLAYER has been no match for Tiz the Law in two starts since returning from a February layoff, but he did not run poorly either time while third in the Belmont and Travers with consecutive new top figures. He has no issues with distance, and he seems likely to give a good account of himself once again.
ATTACHMENT RATE has been improving from race to race as a 3-year-old and he proved that he can be effective going a distance of ground when finishing a solid second in the Ellis Park Derby after a wide trip.
