Kentucky Derby 2020: Marcus Hersh's picks and analysis
Can’t say I was especially tempted to try and beat heavily favored TIZ THE LAW. Five weeks ago, I’d have taken HONOR A. P. to win, and with Art Collector still in the mix, Honor A. P.’s price might really have held appeal. Then Honor A. P. ran in the Shared Belief, and Tiz the Law ran in the Runhappy Travers, two roads diverging, leaving me on the one more traveled.
Granted, the Shared Belief unfolded against Honor A. P., who figures to be better suited to this fast-paced Derby, but despite circumstances working against him, I wanted to see more from Honor A. P. – more in that last start, and a little more in recent workouts.
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Meanwhile, Tiz the Law gets stronger and stronger. I love just watching this horse gallop on video. He is doing less upper-stretch head-turning and appears to be growing – has grown, really – into an utterly professional racehorse. He seems to love to run – and boy, can he run. He has the speed to keep up with any pace and figures to pull a favorable trip from his outside draw. My assumption is his Kentucky Jockey Club had everything to do with a wet track and a claustrophobic trip and nothing to do with Churchill Downs itself.
SOLE VOLANTE threw a dud in the Belmont Stakes but remains capable of much better. He probably is a turf horse at heart, but his established dirt ability puts him within range of rallying into the trifecta at long odds, provided he has, as I’ll guess, progressed from early summer. The work pattern for an expert trainer truly catches the eye, and while the sire was a miler, there is serious staying power on the dam’s side of his pedigree.
I will, for insanity insurance, since I so favored the colt for months, play a couple bets using Honor A.P. on top. Taking into account the slow pace in the Shared Belief and the fact his connections might only have wanted a stepping-stone to the Derby, I wonder just how much he has improved since the Santa Anita Derby. He is a massive horse with a huge stride who, if nothing else, should see out the trip.
One more price for the tris and supers – ENFORCEABLE, who turned in a work notably superior to his winter self in his final Derby tune-up. King Guillermo’s scratch, which means an overall reduction of pace, doesn’t help his chances (the same goes for Sole Volante), but I think he’ll outrun his odds.
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