Kentucky Derby 2020: Dan Illman's picks and analysis
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLEAlthough the only blemish on TIZ THE LAW’s stellar record came at Churchill Downs, guessing it was more the sloppy conditions than the overall racing surface that got him beat in the Kentucky Jockey Club. He’s carved through his competition with aplomb this season and topped it off with a dominating 109-Beyer Speed Figure performance over this distance in the Runhappy Travers. He will likely face a quicker pace situation than he received in the Travers when prompting moderate splits, but has a good break from the gate and can find a nice position while in the clear. He’s simply the horse to beat based on the basic handicapping tenets of speed, pace, and class.
THOUSAND WORDS was one of Bob Baffert’s better juveniles before losing his way when beaten by Authentic in the San Felipe. He took advantage of a moderate pace over a speed-friendly Del Mar track to down Honor A. P. in the Shared Belief, but showed the tenacity that was one of his best attributes last year at 2. He appears to be rounding back into form at the right time, but is unlikely to receive the same setup as at Del Mar.
Think HONOR A. P. might have used the Shared Belief as nothing more than a means to this end. Although the beaten favorite, he was running on at the finish of that race and displayed much talent earlier this season in Southern California. The pace should be sharp, and he is expected to give it a good run from midpack or beyond. Dangerous at decent odds.
:: Become a DRF Bets member and get DRF's Kentucky Derby VIP Package for free
AUTHENTIC figures to be sent out of there at a good clip from his far outside post. He was getting weary late in the Haskell, and there are some concerns about him getting the 1 1/4-mile distance. Certainly capable if somehow allowed to shake loose.
Ny Traffic made it close in the Haskell. Like Thousand Words, he’s a hard-trying colt that shouldn’t be too far away when the real racing begins.
Max Player and Money Moves are horses worth considering in exotic wagers. The former makes his first start for Steve Asmussen after being forced to play catch-up over speed-favoring tracks in the Belmont and Travers. He should get a much better setup here and can threaten with a late bid.
:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2020: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more
Money Moves is very lightly raced, but gave a good account against decent older optional claimers at Saratoga last month. It’s encouraging that trainer Todd Pletcher runs him here instead of the more accomplished Dr Post.