Kentucky Derby 2020: Brad Free's picks and analysis
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLEPerhaps the 2020 Kentucky Derby is a foregone conclusion after all. TIZ THE LAW won six of seven including four Grade 1s with a crushing victory at the 1 1/4-mile Derby distance. He adapts to any pace scenario, consistently earns high figures, and has trained forwardly all season. It’s all good – condition, class, pace, speed.
However, Tiz the Law offers minimal value as the 3-5 program favorite. Perhaps in any other year, bettors could make a case that wagering value can be extracted in the exotic pools. But second choice HONOR A. P. is rock solid at the distance; third choice AUTHENTIC is possibly distance-challenged, but there is no doubt about his class. And he might be loose on the lead.
It looks like this year’s Derby trifecta is chalk city. That is, unless a potential bomber somehow slips into the equation. More on him in a minute.
As for Tiz the Law, he is a safe and reliable favorite comfortably drawn outside where he runs best. He enters without an apparent flaw, for the reasons above.
Honor A. P. emerged as California’s top 3-year-old, winning the Santa Anita Derby; his last-out runner-up finish is not a worry. It was only a prep. The farther, the better for Honor A. P. We haven’t seen his best race yet, because his entire season has focused on the first Saturday in September. True, he must run a career best to win the Kentucky Derby. That is the case for the entire field.
:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2020: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more
Authentic may or may not stay a mile and a quarter, but the front-runner could control the pace and possibly shake loose. From his beneficial outside draw, Authentic has options. He can make the lead, or press. Either way, Authentic will be in contention turning for home. But it’s a long stretch.
The upset candidate is MONEY MOVES, a 30-1 outsider with only three career starts. But each start is better than the start before, including a highly rated runner-up finish last out in a second-level allowance against older. That race was at 1 1/8 miles, and was his first start in fourth months. Money Moves has a right to improve second start back, with sufficient tactical speed to keep the leaders within sight.
Money Moves has much to overcome, yet he would not be the first horse to win the Derby in the fourth start of his career and having not raced as a 2-year-old. Justify took take of that “jinx” two years ago, when the Derby was in May.
A late developer, Money Moves might not be good enough. He might be outclassed, or lack sufficient seasoning. But at double-digit odds, and following the scratch of King Guillermo, Money Moves is the one longshot that just might slip through the cracks.