Juvenile Fillies: Stall thinks Top Decile deserves higher rating
ARCADIA, Calif. – Trainer Al Stall has started seven horses over four Breeders’ Cup events. Only once has he run a horse when the event was held outside of his home base at Churchill Downs.
That was in 2008, when Terrain finished fourth, beaten just 2 1/4 lengths at 15-1, in the $2 million Juvenile held at Santa Anita.
This year, Stall is making a return trip to Southern California, where he will start Top Decile in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Santa Anita. She is listed at 10-1 on the morning line, but her two races suggest she should be a shorter price than that.
“Honestly, she hasn’t done anything wrong her whole life,” Stall said Wednesday from the Phoenix airport, where he was between flights from Kentucky. “That’s the only reason I’d take a horse this far to California, if everything is on point.”
Stall corrected himself. Top Decile did one thing wrong. She didn’t break well in the Grade 1 Alcibiades, but she certainly came with a big run under Rosie Napravnik, only to be outfinished by Peace and War, a European invader who beat Top Decile by a half-length. Had she not gotten hurt, Peace and War would be one of the favorites for the Juvenile Fillies.
“You never know how a certain race is going to grade out,” Stall said. “Who knows if the Alcibiades is a great race or a medium race?”
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Top Decile and Take Charge Brandi (eighth) are the only runners from the Alcibiades to run in the Juvenile Fillies.
The race may revolve around Angela Renee, who shipped from New York to win the Grade 1 Chandelier over the local contingent of Conquest Eclipse, Danette, and Majestic Presence, all three of whom are back in this spot.
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From New York comes By the Moon, Wonder Gal, and Feathered – the top three finishers from the Grade 1 Frizette, run over a sloppy track. Also from New York is Puca, a 16-length maiden winner at Belmont in her third start.
Cristina’s Journey, the winner of the Grade 2 Pocahontas, and Hennythelovepenny, a 6 1/2-length maiden winner in her only start on dirt, complete the field.
Key contenders
Top Decile (Beyers: 80-81)
* Showed good speed in winning her debut sprinting at Saratoga before the Alcibiades, in which she had to make a long, sustained run to try to make up 12 lengths on a wet track.
* She breaks from post 11 under Rosie Napravnik in a 12-horse field.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 11 Top Decile. Trainer Al Stall is 17-5-2-1 with a $3.51 ROI over the past five years with 2-years-olds going a route of ground for the second time in their career.Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
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“She’s got a wonderful mind,” Stall said. “We’re not worried about post position. We feel good.”
Angela Renee (Last 3 Beyers: 87-51-85)
* With the exception of a poor effort in the Grade 1 Spinaway, run over an extremely sloppy track, she has yet to run a bad race. She did have an absolutely perfect trip in winning the Chandelier here Sept. 27.
* “To her credit, she put herself in position to get a perfect trip,” trainer Todd Pletcher said. “The situation was absolutely the way you’d draw it up every time if you could do that. Hopefully, she’ll be able to get a similar trip from post 2.”
* Since the Chandelier, Angela Renee had two easy half-mile works.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 2 Angela Renee. Trainer Todd Pletcher is 27-11-1-5 with a $2.24 ROI over the past three years with 2-year-old last-out winners in dirt route graded stakes. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
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:: Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies analysis
Feathered (Last 3 Beyers: 72-86-79)
* Owns the second-highest Beyer Speed Figure (86) of any horse in this field on a fast track, that coming in a 9 3/4-length win going seven furlongs at Saratoga.
* Despite breaking alertly, she was taken off the pace when finishing third in the Frizette and resented the mud getting kicked in her face.
* Trainer Pletcher said he and jockey Javier Castellano may have “over-handicapped the race.”
* Breaking from the rail Saturday, Feathered is “tactical enough she could be prominent early,” Pletcher said.
Puca (Last 3 Beyers: 80-69-44)
* As visually impressive as you’d like to see one win, drawing away to a 16-length maiden win over a “good” Belmont Park main track when stretched out in distance.
* Her half-mile breeze Sunday in a bullet 47.18 seconds was very sharp.
* This is only the fourth Juvenile Fillies starter for trainer Bill Mott and his second since Sweet Roberta finished second to Go for Wand in 1989.
By the Moon (Last 3 Beyers: 78-64-79)
* Dominated the Frizette over a sloppy track in her last start.
* Trainer Michelle Nevin acknowledges that there are questions to answer, including two turns, a fast track, and post 12.
* “I can’t say I’m worried about [distance] because she’s led me to believe she wanted to go two turns all along,” Nevin said.