Harness: Guidelines for betting 2-year-olds

By now you may have noticed a number of 2-year-old races at your local track. They are popping up in overnight races, as well as Sire Stakes and even a Grand Circuit stake here and there. Armed with very little information, handicappers are left with the task of trying to figure out which horses will win. With that in mind, below are some thoughts on how to tackle the races along with some potential horses to watch in the coming weeks.

Nothing is more important than watching the races with your own eyes or using the thoughts of someone with a respected opinion. Other than lack of time, there really is no excuse to miss a race anymore with 412 Communications showing the Gaitway Farm and Magical Acres races and most tracks like the Meadowlands, Woodbine Mohawk Park, Scioto Downs, etc. providing live HD feeds.

What are you looking for when watching?

I'm seeking out a horse that finishes up the mile nicely and isn't being asked too hard in the process. These horses don't have to finish first, they just need to show the desire to pass others and behave. I'm also a big fan of a horse that can take some air on the outside and still stick with the leaders or maybe even pass them. This shows some maturity and a desire to compete despite a more adverse trip.

I've put together a list of "don'ts" to consider when playing 2-year-olds over the next month.

DON'T get caught up with time. The fastest horse in a qualifier isn't always the fastest horse in a pari-mutuel race. I watched horses qualify in 1:53 that weren't nearly as visually impressive as ones that went in 1:56. Keep in mind that the goal in a qualifier isn't to go as fast as possible. Trainers and drivers are simply trying to get their horses to have a positive experience, win or lose.

DON'T get caught up in yearling prices. Too often people are lazy and see a $350,000 auction price tag and just assume greatness. Yes, some of these horses will be great, but more will go off as odds-on choices and flop than will win in their first starts out. The horses don't know how much they cost and certainly aren't pressing to live up to that price.

DON'T get too infatuated with driver choice. Sometimes drivers are going to pick off the best horse due to barn loyalty and unless you have a good handle on which drivers stick with certain trainers, it isn't worth betting your hard-earned money on that factor alone. Now if you see Yannick Gingras pick off a Ron Burke-trained 2-year-old, that might be worth considering. But if he chose the Burke horse that doesn't necessarily mean they are best.

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DON'T bet any heavy favorites. It simply makes no logical sense to wager on a favorite in a 2-year-old race unless you have a great feel for the horses after watching all of the qualifiers. Even then, I'm not sure I'd recommend it. Past performances alone aren't going to be enough to provide a true indication of each horses' ability and even after watching replays, you are still taking a big risk playing a horse that you don't know a ton about.

Something else to consider when playing is that 2-year-old races are infamous for conservative drives. You'll often see a horse that in theory should be much the best, but they are driven so patiently that they only close late for second or third. It is worth considering that a horse which shows early speed in the morning is probably more likely to be aggressive in the pari-mutuel races. Though make sure they are showing that speed on a similarly-sized track. A horse that left well on the seven-eighths at Vernon might not be able to do the same on the half-mile at Monticello.

There are going to be price horses that can win given the right circumstance in almost every 2-year-old race filled with mostly first-time starters. Especially in a trot race, don't be afraid to completely toss out the favorite and go for a big payday. You only need one favorite to misbehave and it will be worth your while.

Over the last few weeks I've watched all of the baby races at the Meadowlands, Gaitway Farm and Magical Acres. From these sessions I've compiled a list of 50+ horses to watch. Some of them are on the list because I loved the performance. Some made the list because they did something I didn't like. You'll see some of my thoughts on these horses in this full-card analysis as the Kindergarten series kicks off at the Meadowlands on Friday. Below are just a few of the horses which really caught my eye for one reason or another. Hopefully it helps you pick some winners, though not sure you'll get a good price on these.

CALATRAVA: Hugged the cones and was loaded in the final eighth when clear.

CAPTAIN ALBANO (Meadowlands Friday Race six): Was very willing on 6/21 and unleashed a “wow" rally on 7/1.

CHEVAL RAPIDE (Meadowlands Friday Race nine): Recovered from an incidental break and showed poise.

MARS HILL: Really accelerated when asked to go and was wrapped up late.

SUNDAYKINDOFLOVE: Was ultra-impressive on the engine and finished under a hold in a fast time.

DOLCE AMARA: Powered home in 27 1/5 all on her own.

BETTER IS NICE: Pulled pocket and won under a hold while coming home in 25 4/5.

BREEZY HALL: Waited until the stretch and uncorked a nice turn of speed while in-hand.