Fulfilling expectations (or not) on Big Cap Day

ARCADIA, Calif. – It can be entertaining and frustrating to manage expectations in racing.

Handicappers want horses to run as forecast. We are pleasantly surprised when they overachieve, disappointed when they fall short. Up or down? We can never know for sure, which is one reason we keep coming back – because riding a roller coaster is fun.

Santa Anita Handicap Day used to be a spring highlight, but attendance Saturday fell to an all-time low 15,256. Big Cap Day is not so big anymore. Up until two years ago, average Big Cap attendance was 25,000-plus. In two short years, a lot changed in California.

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Racing fans that showed up Saturday were treated to highs, lows, and in-betweens. Some horses outran expectations, others ran poorly, some did not run at all, including Big Cap favorite Gift Box. He was scratched with an ankle problem.

One had to be impressed by horses that did run, the favorites that met expectations. Those include debut-romping filly Gamine and stakes-winning colt Authentic. Beyond raw ability, they share a lot in common including trainer, jockey, sire, and physique.

“She’s a big, long, tall filly,” Gamine’s rider Drayden Van Dyke said after the daughter of Into Mischief won in a gallop. “She kind of looks like Authentic – big and lean. It was pretty much a paid workout.”

Gamine won by more than six lengths with an 87 Beyer, prompting a sigh of relief from trainer Bob Baffert. “I was more nervous for that race than I was for the stake,” he said. “She’s like the female version of Authentic. She does everything effortlessly.”

Early in the week, before Gamine ran, Baffert mentioned the Santa Anita Oaks for her. After she won Saturday, Baffert deferred. “I don’t really have any plans . . . see how she comes out of it, and if it stirs her up,” he said. “You never know how they’re going to react second time out.”

Regardless of where she runs, expectations for Gamine are completely out of whack. That’s what happens when a horse brings $1.8 million at auction, works like a freak in the morning, and delivers in the afternoon.

An hour after Gamine’s win, Authentic and Van Dyke wired the Grade 2 San Felipe. Authentic is legit. He is 3 for 3 and the likely favorite for the Santa Anita Derby next month. But the San Felipe takeaway was the outstanding comeback by the runner-up.

Honor A. P., racing for first time in nearly five months, finished second by only 2 1/4 lengths. “He should have a better kick next time, so we’re excited,” jockey Mike Smith said.

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Honor A. P. ran above expectations. With a prep under his belt, he should give Authentic a genuine battle April 4.

Others on Saturday ran below expectations, like Got Stormy in the Grade 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile. If she was in form, she might have crushed. Saturday, she did not even win the race. Got Stormy ran okay to finish second, but many fans expected her to blow away the field.

“Believe me, so did I,” jockey Tyler Gaffalione said after Got Stormy finished second in the Kilroe Mile. “I’m not going to lie – it’s disappointing. But last year this time, we ran third at Keeneland and we were thrilled.”

That is the problem in getting good. Expectations become unrealistic. Exactly one year ago, Got Stormy won a modest allowance, followed by a high-odds third in a Keeneland Grade 1. By the end of the season, she was a multiple Grade 1-winning terror.

“Right now, we’re just getting her going,” Gaffalione said. “We still have a long year ahead of us, and she seems like she’s going in the right direction. We’re going to have a lot of fun with her.”

Gaffalione makes sense, but healthy handicapping and wagering requires skepticism. Got Stormy may or may not replicate 2019. Even if she does, a year ago she did not reach top form until summer. If she runs next month at Keeneland, expectations can be lowered. Got Stormy might be a favorite to fade. Her runner-up finish Saturday was only okay.

River Boyne won the Kilroe, his second straight graded stakes win for trainer Jeff Mullins and jockey Abel Cedillo. As long as he stays in California, River Boyne will be tough.

Flagstaff won the Grade 2, seven-furlong San Carlos. A 6-year-old gelding, Flagstaff was winning his first graded stakes. There is talk of a road trip. If so, he will face a tougher field and need a higher Beyer than the perfect-trip career-high 98 he earned Saturday.

As for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap, remember when the fields were deep and the winner ran fast? Until this year, every Big Cap winner earned a triple-digit Beyer.

This year, the early favorite was scratched and post-time favorite Midcourt found a mile and a quarter out of reach. The race devolved into a tedious 2:02.32 tussle won by Combatant, an allowance-caliber horse in the right place at the right time. He earned a 98 Beyer.

It is unfortunate the Santa Anita Handicap of 2020 is ultimately forgettable – the smallest Big Cap attendance and the lowest-ever Beyer by a Big Cap winner.