Free: Tiz the Law's reign may not last until the Kentucky Derby

Everyone is looking for something – important stuff like a return to normal, or less important stuff like a horse to bet.

Jockey Manny Franco was looking for something Saturday afternoon at Gulfstream Park. Franco was riding favorite Tiz the Law in the Florida Derby, when he snuck a peak over his right shoulder at the five-sixteenths pole and again at the eighth pole.

Franco was looking for competition that never arrived. Tiz the Law crushed the Florida Derby by more than four lengths, an effort that in a normal year would make him one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. This year is anything but normal.

The Derby has been postponed to September, a four-month delay that is an eternity. Some 3-year-olds develop early, others later. Tiz the Law, Grade 1 winner at 2 and 3, was early. But his maturity advantage is likely to diminish as time passes, an unfortunate reality for Jack Knowlton, operating manager of Sackatoga Stable.

“A lot of horses are going to have a chance to catch up that I don’t think would have been as competitive the first Saturday in May,” Knowlton acknowledged last week during an interview on The Horse Ownership Experience podcast (https://apple.co/2UpZ0Zm).

Seasoning and maturity are key considerations when 3-year-olds race a mile and a quarter in spring. The challenge for Tiz the Law is maintaining his current advantage until the new Derby date, Sept. 5.

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The odds are against Tiz the Law. None of the last four Derby winners won a race after June, though a less-demanding early campaign may have extended their seasons, and 2019 first-across-the-wire Maximum Security continued as the country’s top 3-year-old.

What if previous Derbies were postponed to September? Would American Pharoah have won in 2015, or would Keen Ice have worn him down like he did in the Travers? Would California Chrome have won the 2014 Derby, or would Bayern have defeated him like he did twice that fall?

Orb won the 2013 Derby, but Travers winner Will Take Charge was better later in the year and probably would have won a Derby in September. I’ll Have Another won the 2012 Derby, then retired after winning the Preakness. Animal Kingdom was sidelined the second half of 2011; Super Saver went off form after he won the 2010 Derby.

Relative to a Derby in September, time is no friend for Tiz the Law. As the months pass, late-developing 3-year-olds will catch up to become worthy rivals. Imagine what would have happened if the 2016 Derby was postponed to fall.

Arrogate lost his career debut in April, and followed with a memorable win streak that included a 13-length summer blowout in the Travers. Safe to say Arrogate would have won the 2016 Derby if it had been in September.

Curlin was insufficiently seasoned for the 2007 Derby, he finished third in just his fourth career start. At year’s end, he defeated older in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders’ Cup Classic. Curlin would have been tough vs. 3-year-olds in a Derby in September.

Tiznow made the first start of his career in April 2000. Four months later, he finished second in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic, and two months after that he won the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Tiznow would have fared well against 3-year-olds in a September Derby.

Maybe another Arrogate, Curlin, or Tiznow is in the wings. Or maybe Tiz the Law will remain a leader through the end of the year and beyond. An autumn Kentucky Derby does not have to be the ultimate objective.

Many 3-year-olds that ran in Triple Crown races skipped the second half of the year, or went off form and returned as top older horses. Those include Vino Rosso, Mucho Macho Man, Animal Kingdom, Real Quiet, and Silver Charm.

Who knows what is next for Tiz the Law after his decisive Florida Derby? Plans are fluid. The same applies to whoever wins the Arkansas Derby, rescheduled to May 2 at Oaklawn Park. Possible starters include Nadal, King Guillermo, and Wells Bayou.

The hope in California is the Santa Anita Derby can be run in the not-so-distant future, assuming a resumption of racing at Santa Anita following a Los Angeles County-ordered shutdown. Who wouldn’t look forward to a rematch between Authentic and Honor A. P.? And the exciting Charlatan could run at Santa Anita or Oaklawn.

Meanwhile, Tiz the Law is rock solid atop the East Coast 3-year-old division. He has won 4 of 5, with his only apparent weakness a reluctance to race inside and behind rivals.

Tiz the Law’s lone loss was an inside trip that led to a disappointing third last fall at Churchill Downs. Otherwise, he is perfect. His jockey recognizes Tiz the Law runs best when he runs in the clear.

When he peeked backward in the Florida Derby, Franco was looking for competition that could not keep up. The next time he rides Tiz the Law in a race with Derby in its name, such as the one run the first Saturday in September, it might be a different story.

Franco might look back and be surprised. With an additional four months to develop, Tiz the Law’s challengers may have caught up and be ready to run right past.