Derby Watch: Waiting game for horses just below points cutoff

Trainer Gustavo Delgado wants to run Bodexpress in the Kentucky Derby. So too Kenny McPeek with Signalman. Over there in the corner, that’s Mark Hennig waving his hand, saying he wants in, too, with Bourbon War. Trouble is, with less than a week to go until final entries are taken and posts drawn for the 145th Derby on May 4 at Churchill Downs, they are all on the outside looking in.

Bodexpress, Signalman, Sueno, and Bourbon War are ranked 21st through 24th to get into a race that has a maximum of 20 runners. There are up to four horses who can be named to the also-eligible list at entry time on Tuesday, and with a deadline of the morning of May 3 for Derby scratches, that would buy each a few more days to get in.

But barring a horse in the top 20 dropping out, they will be out of luck. The prospect of that happening has led to a mix of frustration and resignation.

“I’ve got him loaded to run,” McPeek said of Signalman. “We’re going to enter and hope he gets in.

“It’s just disappointing that a horse who has accomplished as much as he has is sitting behind a maiden and the Japanese horse,” McPeek said, referring to Bodexpress and Master Fencer.

Bodexpress, who never has won a race in five tries, finished second to Maximum Security in the Florida Derby in his lone stakes try, earning 40 points. Master Fencer got in via the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series, one of two standalone series created by Churchill Downs – along with the European Road to the Derby – to foster overseas participation from horsemen and bettors.

Signalman has 38 points, earned via a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club (10 points), a second-place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity (4), and third-place finishes in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (4) and Blue Grass (20). Losing second in the Blue Grass by a nose to Win Win Win, a difference of 20 points, gave Win Win Win 50 points instead of 30 and Signalman 38 instead of 58. If nothing changes in the coming days, that nose will be the margin between one of those horses running in the Derby and the other being left out.

Since Churchill Downs went to a points system for the 2013 Derby, 38 points always has been sufficient to make the field. The record high was set in 2016, when 32 points were needed.

“He’s been first, second, and third in graded stake after graded stake,” McPeek said. “But it’s out of my control now. If he doesn’t get in, we’ll take him to the Preakness and then the Belmont.”

Signalman is at Churchill Downs awaiting his fate. Bodexpress is at Gulfstream Park West, where he was to work late this week before heading to Kentucky. Gustavo Delgado Jr., who assists his father, said Bodexpress is being trained “as if he’s going to be in the race.”

“We definitely want to run in the Derby,” Delgado said. “Hopefully, we’ll get in. If he doesn’t get in, we’ll go to the Preakness.”

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Delgado said that even if Bodexpress isn’t in the top 20 by entry time, he definitely would be entered in the race in the hope he would scratch in from the also-eligible list. In that scenario, he would be the first one in, as horses are put on the also-eligible list in points order. But if Bodexpress were to draw in based on one scratch after posts are drawn, he would be marooned in the outside post, 20.

Bodexpress’s 40 points are the same as Spinoff, the Louisiana Derby runner-up. But Spinoff is in the field, and Bodexpress is not, owing to the tiebreaker of earnings in unrestricted races.

Bourbon War was fourth in the Florida Derby (10 points) after finishing second in the Fountain of Youth (20 points). He also was fourth last fall in the Remsen (1 point). His 31 points place him well down the also-eligible list. Bourbon War is at Belmont Park, from where Hennig is prepared to ship “if something crazy happens and a slot opens,” Hennig said.

But barring multiple defections before entry day, Hennig said the plan would be to remain in New York and run in the Peter Pan at Belmont on May 11 as a prep toward the Belmont Stakes on June 8, or possibly go to the Preakness on May 18.

“Right now, we’re leaning toward the Peter Pan, but we’d watch the fallout from the Derby,” he said.

That’s what those on the outside looking in are down to – watching, waiting, and hoping.