Derby Watch: Smith lands on Omaha Beach, first by chance then by choice

The decision by Mike Smith and his agent, Brad Pegram, to ride Omaha Beach in the Kentucky Derby instead of their other enticing choice Roadster was reached on Tuesday, three days after Omaha Beach won the Arkansas Derby.

Smith’s decision unleashed a domino effect, including Florent Geroux picking up the mount on Roadster. But to even get to that point, a series of events took place, some of Smith’s choosing, many not, that would be a case study for chaos theory, how random events can yield unpredictable, unforeseen results.

Omaha Beach lost his first four starts before defeating maidens at Santa Anita on Feb. 9 in a sprint race on a sloppy, sealed track. Flavien Prat rode him in all five of those races. The initial plan for trainer Richard Mandella coming out of that race was to run Omaha Beach in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita or the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, both on March 9. But the San Felipe was canceled owing to the suspension of racing for 3 1/2 weeks last month at Santa Anita, and then the Gotham was ruled out by Mandella because the trainer wanted an extra week for Omaha Beach to get over a quarter crack that needed to be patched.

Mandella thus set his sights on the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on March 16. The Rebel already had been chosen for Galilean, the Jerry Hollendorfer trainee who was to make his graded stakes debut there following a pair of stakes wins under Prat in Southern California.

As it turned out, Galilean and Omaha Beach wound up in different divisions of a Rebel that ended up being split, in part because the situation at Santa Anita brought several California-based runners to Oaklawn, including another Mandella trainee, Extra Hope, who had been scheduled to run in the San Felipe. But both Hollendorfer and Mandella needed an answer from Prat and his agent, Derek Lawson, long before the Rebel was split, before racing was suspended at Santa Anita, when it looked like the Rebel would be a standalone race.

Prat chose Galilean, in part, Lawson said at the time, because Galilean already had won going two turns and Omaha Beach’s only win had been in a sprint.

Mandella immediately tabbed Smith for the Rebel ride, in part because Smith was already going to be at Oaklawn that day to ride the filly Midnight Bisou in the Azeri Stakes.

Omaha Beach won his division of the Rebel, defeating last year’s champion 2-year-old male, Game Winner. Galilean finished third in his division of the Rebel, behind Long Range Toddy and Improbable.

On April 6, Smith joined forces with Roadster to win the Santa Anita Derby, defeating Game Winner.

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After that, it became obvious that Smith faced a potentially difficult decision if Omaha Beach were to win the Arkansas Derby, so jockey agents from around the country put out feelers to both Bob Baffert, the trainer of Roadster, and Mandella.

Last Saturday, Omaha Beach, under Smith, won the Arkansas Derby, defeating Improbable to become one of the favorites – if not the favorite – for the Derby. Galilean, with Prat, finished fifth and fell short of having the points necessary to be in the Derby.

Both Mandella and Baffert communicated to Smith and Pegram that they wanted an answer the early part of the week as to whom Smith would ride, and both trainers made contingency plans in case their horse needed a new rider for the Derby. Pegram met with both Mandella and Baffert at Santa Anita on Tuesday morning. Omaha Beach arrived at Churchill Downs via van from Oaklawn on Tuesday afternoon, and a short time later, Pegram let Mandella know Smith had chosen Omaha Beach.

Baffert within minutes announced that Geroux would ride Roadster.

“My jock and I both reached out to Bob,” Doug Bredar, Geroux’s agent, said Wednesday. “We knew the issue pretty much right after the Arkansas Derby.

“My jock has a relationship with one of the owners,” Bredar said, referring to Speedway Stable’s Peter Fluor, “which helped, and he’s ridden for Bob, and Bob likes Flo.”

Prat, who had been under consideration for the mount on Roadster, might very well have ended up back on Omaha Beach had Smith chosen Roadster. And if Smith had picked Roadster, Geroux likely would have still been seeking a mount as of Wednesday.

But when Smith chose Omaha Beach, and Baffert went with Geroux, Prat was the odd man out for Roadster or Omaha Beach. As of Wednesday, Prat – who rides Kentucky Oaks favorite Bellafina – was still shopping for a Derby mount, with horses like Cutting Humor and Country House among those available.