Clear favorites Chance It and Sole Volante to slug it out in Tampa Bay Derby

OLDSMAR, Fla. – Saffie Joseph Jr. got what he wished for – well, so far. Now all he needs is for Chance It to win.

Joseph scratched Chance It last Saturday at Gulfstream Park after the colt was assigned the outside post for the Fountain of Youth Stakes. One week later, Chance It will break from post 4 when he vies for favoritism with a familiar rival in Sole Volante among a full field of 12 in the 40th running of the Grade 2, $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby, the annual highlight at Tampa Bay Downs.

Chance It will have Paco Lopez aboard as he looks to clinch a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby. The 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby offers 85 qualifying points (50-20-10-5) toward the May 2 classic at Churchill Downs.

“We’re happy with our post,” said Joseph, who was scheduled to arrive here mid-afternoon Friday after driving his car behind the van transporting Chance It from their Gulfstream base. “All we need is for him to ship well and stay well. He’s been doing so good. I think we go in there with as much talent as anybody in the race.”

Sole Volante, with Florent Geroux riding from post 7, is a slight 2-1 morning-line favorite over Chance It (5-2) on the strength of his 2 1/2-length triumph here four weeks ago over previously unbeaten Independence Hall in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, also at 1 1/16 miles. In their lone head-to-head meeting, Chance It won the Jan. 4 Mucho Macho Man, a one-turn-mile at Gulfstream, with Sole Volante third by 2 1/4 lengths.

Sole Volante, trained by Patrick Biancone, was ridden in his breakthrough Davis score by Luca Panici, who since has been sidelined with a fractured collarbone. Geroux also replaced Panici when riding Ete Indien to an 8 1/2-length romp for Biancone in the Fountain of Youth.

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Lopez has the mount on Chance It because regular rider Tyler Gaffalione was otherwise committed to Got Stormy in the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile on Saturday at Santa Anita.

Sole Volante, based at the Palm Meadows training center, and Chance It are the principals in a lineup that includes 10 Atlantic Coast shippers. Mo Mosa, in from Turfway Park for Mike Maker, and Bye Bye Melvin, part of trainer Graham Motion’s Tampa string, are the only exceptions.

The third program choice at 8-1 is Market Analysis (post 5, John Velazquez), one of three Todd Pletcher trainees in the race. The gray colt was punctual as the favorite in a seven-furlong race on the Jan. 25 Pegasus World Cup undercard in his only start.

The other Pletcher runners are Texas Swing (post 1, Javier Castellano), a last-out maiden winner at Tampa, and Unrighteous (post 9, Joe Bravo), a Calumet Farm homebred adding blinkers and still seeking his first win. Unrighteous was second in a key Gulfstream maiden race on Feb. 8 behind Saturday rival Spa City (post 2, Daniel Centeno), a Godolphin homebred trained by Kiaran McLaughlin.

Pletcher has won the Tampa Bay Derby a record five times, with Tapwrit (2017) being his most recent winner.

A host of fringe players in this interesting cast of 3-year-olds includes Letmeno (post 8, Chris Landeros), who began his season with a third-place finish in a Feb. 14 allowance here behind Gouverneur Morris – arguably Pletcher’s top Derby hope – and the speedy Untitled.

“We’ve got Derby dreams,” said Ian Wilkes, trainer of Letmeno. “He’s a hard-knocking horse and he’s really improving, I believe.”

Besides Mo Mosa, Maker also will start Relentless Dancer (post 3, Antonio Gallardo), a distant fourth in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream in an effort the trainer said “he really needed.” Besides the two favorites, Relentless Dancer is the only stakes winner in the field, having crushed Louisiana-breds last fall at Delta Downs.

King Guillermo and the maiden Tons of Gold round out the cast.

Independence Hall, stabled at Tampa, is skipping this race in favor of the March 28 Florida Derby at Gulfstream.

The Tampa Bay Derby, sponsored since 2016 by Lambholm South, was first run in 1981, when Paristo prevailed for trainer George Handy. The only Tampa Bay Derby winner to go on to capture the Kentucky Derby was Street Sense in 2007.

The purse listed here for the race does not include $50,000 in bonuses for registered Florida-breds. Chance It is the only such entry.

Track records for attendance and all-sources handle have been set on prior Tampa Bay Derby Days, with 12,746 on hand in 2008 and $14,859,632 wagered in 2018.

The Tampa Bay Derby is the 11th of 12 Saturday races and the last of five consecutive stakes on an outstanding program that starts at 12:15 p.m. Eastern. Post time for the feature is 5:32 p.m., with TVG and FOX Sports both providing extensive coverage in conjunction with the other two Derby preps, the Gotham from New York and the San Felipe from Santa Anita.

Sunshine and a high of 66 are in the Saturday forecast.