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Churchill Downs

Chief Wallabee, Paladin close as co-favorites in latest Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool

Matt Hegarty|Mar 16, 2026
Chief Wallabee01.1.10.26.RTCP_.jpg
Ryan Thompson/Coglianese Photos Chief Wallabee, who finished second in the Feb. 28 Fountain of Youth Stakes in his most recent start, is headed toward the Florida Derby on March 28.

Paladin and Chief Wallabee, the two favorites in Daily Racing Form’s Derby Watch, closed as the co-favorites in the fifth Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool at 8-1, separated by only $982 in betting, according to results provided by Churchill Downs, the pool's administrator.

The tepid final price of 8-1 – and a significant drop in betting in the fifth pool compared to last year’s fifth Future Wager – reflected lingering uncertainty over which horses in this year’s 3-year-old crop have the best chances in the May 2 Kentucky Derby. Usually by this time, a clear favorite has emerged, but an injury earlier this year to the heavy winter Derby favorite, Ted Noffey, has muddled the picture significantly.

Paladin, who won the Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 14 at Fair Grounds in his 3-year-old debut, is pointing to the Blue Grass Stakes on April 4 for his next start. Chief Wallabee, who finished second in the Feb. 28 Fountain of Youth Stakes in his most recent start, is headed toward the Florida Derby on March 28.

According to Churchill, Paladin drew $25,772 in win bets, compared to $24,790 for Chief Wallabee. Total handle in the Derby future pools, including win and exacta betting, was $310,430, compared to $430,006 last year, a drop of 27.8 percent.

:: DRF Road to the Derby Package Available Now! Save 37% on key handicapping essentials through Kentucky Derby day.

The final Kentucky Future Wager pool is scheduled for the weekend of Apr. 2-4, but Churchill has already announced that the pool will close prior to the running of the three major Derby preps on Apr. 4: the Blue Grass Stakes, the Wood Memorial, and the Santa Anita Derby.

Only one significant Derby prep was held over the weekend, the Virginia Derby, awarding 50 Derby qualifying points to the winner. Incredibolt won the race by four lengths and closed in the Future Wager at 16-1, just behind the field of all other 3-year-olds, which closed at 14-1, a remarkably short price for this stage in the run-up. The Future Wager offered betting on 39 individual entrants plus the "all other" field.

Commandment and Nearly, the third- and fourth-ranked horses in DRF’s Derby Watch, each closed at 12-1. Both are pointing to the March 28 Florida Derby.

In the final Kentucky Oaks Future Wager, also held last weekend, the undefeated filly Zany closed as the 4-1 favorite, followed by Bella Ballerina (7-1), Explora (8-1), She Be Smooth (11-1), and Meaning (12-1). The entry of all other 3-year-old fillies closed at 17-1.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2026: Top contenders, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

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