Cave Rock yet to emerge on work tab

Though he was a fast, elite 2-year-old last season, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Cave Rock is taking his own sweet time at age 3. Cave Rock is the only horse on the Derby Watch list without a race or workout in 2023. Cave Rock is galloping daily at Santa Anita, and trainer Bob Baffert said the colt is nearing his first comeback work.

“I’m not pressing him, I’m not forcing him to do anything,” Baffert said Sunday. “He’s going to start breezing in a couple weeks. There’s nothing set in stone. He’s going to let me know. I did lose two weeks during the rain. That set me back.”

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Cave Rock initially targeted a Feb. 25 return in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn. He will not make that race. For now, Baffert will keep his options open until the colt resumes workouts. The 12-1 third choice on Daily Racing Form’s Derby Watch odds by David Aragona, Cave Rock this week was listed 42-1 to win the Kentucky Derby by Circa Sports Book in Las Vegas.

Arabian Knight 6-1 in futures

The status of Baffert-trained Derby prospects remained uncertain as of midweek due to the Churchill Downs ban, but Baffert-trained Arabian Knight maintains 6-1 favoritism on the DRF Derby Watch odds by Aragona, close to the Circa future-book odds. Circa listed Arabian Knight 6.50-1 to win the Kentucky Derby and also offered a wager that would pay if Arabian Knight does not win. The price this week was -940, which means risking $940 to for a net win of $100.

Circa offers a similar wager on Forte, whose Kentucky Derby future-book win price is slightly higher than Arabian Knight at 8-1. Forte, however, does not have the Churchill Downs-Baffert ban in the way, therefore his “will-not-win-Derby” price was -1,240. Bettors must risk $1,240 for a potential net win of $100. Final future-book underlay note from Circa: Fair Grounds-based filly Hoosier Philly and Santa Anita debut sprint winner Geaux Rocket Ride both were listed at 35-1.

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