Breeders' Cup Sprint wagering strategy

If there is a toss-out in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, he is not obvious.

The field is loaded top to bottom with ability. The field also is loaded top to bottom with vulnerability.

Secret Circle, the favorite, will try to win the Sprint for a second straight year. But his comeback was disappointing. Secret Circle dueled for the lead, and surrendered in the final eighth. He finished third.

Maybe he was “short.” Bob Baffert rarely starts short horses. It is possible Secret Circle is not the same horse he was a year ago. It is possible he needed his comeback. It was his first start in eight months.

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If the third-place finish shook off the rust, Secret Circle can rebound. Like him? No. Hate him? No. He is only a contender. And, he is the 9-2 favorite.

Rich Tapestry upset the race Secret Circle exits. Rich Tapestry is 3 for 3 on dirt, a top-class international sprinter in Hong Kong and Dubai, and has trained super since his win the Santa Anita Sprint Championship.

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Rich Tapestry was making his first start in six months when he won. Normally, you would think there is a risk he could bounce. But he had “training races” overseas, so his local debut was actually his third start back. That reduces the risk he will bounce.

Rich Tapestry is this handicapper’s top choice. Love him? No. His odds are too short at 5-1. Rich Tapestry is merely a top choice in a wide-open race.

The pace of the Sprint should be severe. It usually is. Seeking the Sherif must gun from the rail; Secret Circle has speed, and so does Private Zone. Add to the busy front end are front-runners/pressers Fast Anna and Work All Week. The pace will be legit.

It is hard to know if East Coast speed will cope. But you have to respect Palace. A two-time Grade 1 winner this summer at Saratoga, he could get a good trip right behind. If he can chase hot fractions and still finish, he can win. Those are lots of “ifs” at 6-1.

Big Macher might be the best gamble. He has been freshened, is training super, and he beat Goldencents in summer. Big Macher has been working super, and he could get a good trip right behind the speed.

In a race that does not have a toss-out, Big Macher might be the best gamble at double-digit odds.

Many others have a chance, though perhaps not Indianapolis, Wind Fire, or Bakken. Others with a chance include Mico Margarita, Salutos Amigos, and Bourbon Courage.

Big Macher is the play, at 12-1. And he is worth saving in the exacta, under Rich Tapestry and Palace.