Breeders' Cup Juvenile wagering strategy

With American Pharoah out of the Juvenile, the focus of the race shifts toward the East Coast and specifically to the barn of trainer Todd Pletcher, who sends out two top contenders in DAREDEVIL and CARPE DIEM. Of the pair, Daredevil may have the most potential coming off a Champagne victory in which he absolutely cruised to victory with plenty left in the tank at the end. He has trained well up to the race, with the main caveat being the fact he has yet to try two turns. Carpe Diem, on the other hand, handled two turns nicely when winning the Breeders’ Futurity in handy fashion. He too looked good in subsequent works.

UPSTART proved no match for Daredevil over the sloppy course in the Champagne, but he was second-best despite not having the best of trips that day, and he has looked great since his arrival in southern California. He should offer some value if able to secure good position breaking from the extreme outside.

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The top West Coast contender in the Juvenile is CALCULATOR, an improving colt who turned in a sharp effort around two turns behind American Pharoah here in the FrontRunner. Look for him to trip out nicely from the second flight in a field loaded with speed.

SOUPER COLOSSAL will have to step up his game from a figure standpoint, but he looked sensational drilling a swift but easy half-mile with a huge gallop-out over this course earlier in the week. The question is whether he can avoid a potentially suicidal pace duel with several of the other speed types in this lineup. He should be a square price, though, and eligible to grab at least a share of the gimmicks in his present form.

ONE LUCKY DANE will be a side against. This long-striding colt figures to be part of the early mix, and I didn’t think he was moving all that comfortably during a routine gallop on Thursday.

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My play to win in the Juvenile would be Carpe Diem, who figures to offer a little more value than his stablemate Daredevil, while keying both Pletcher horses on top over Upstart, Calculator, and Souper Colossal in trifectas and superfectas.