Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies wagering strategy

Deciphering the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, the fourth race at Santa Anita on Saturday and first BC race on the card, is not an easy task.

This much seems certain, there is no standout in the 12-horse field and the Chandelier Stakes, the local distance and surface prep for the Juvenile Fillies, was a strong race.

Here are a few things I wish we knew: How good were the Frizette and Alcibiades? Those races were run over wet tracks that likely helped some horses and hindered others. I also wish we had a better line on Cristina’s Journey, who is 2 for 2 but has not raced since earning a Juvenile Fillies Win and You’re In berth by taking the Pocahontas at Churchill Downs on Sept. 6.

First the Chandelier.

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Angela Renee, coming off a nice runner-up effort to Cavorting in the Adirondack at Saratoga, ran lights out. She tracked the early leaders while racing along the inside, lodged her bid outside pacesetting Sunday Sonnet entering the stretch, drew clear, and then held Conquest Eclipse safe.

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My key to the Juvenile Fillies is that Conquest Eclipse had no choice in the Chandelier other than to follow Angela Renee. Conquest Eclipse finished just as well as Angela Renee but could not make up any ground in the final eighth and was beaten 1 1/2 lengths. Conquest Eclipse was second best in the Chandelier as she defeated third-place finisher Danette by 3 1/2 lengths.

Because Angela Renee got the jump on Conquest Eclipse in the Chandelier, does not mean she will do so again Saturday. I think with a different scenario Conquest Eclipse can turn the tables at a fair price. I also think the same winning Chandelier exacta box is the most probable result in the Juvenile Fillies.

My plan for the race is to bet Conquest Eclipse to win, box her in the exacta with Angela Renee, and then do an exacta part wheel with Conquest Eclipse on top and under other fillies I consider contenders.

Let’s look at the other Chandelier runners in the Juvenile Fillies.

Danette is still a maiden but finished well for third despite being wide into the stretch. Majestic Presence dragged her rider up to early contention outside horses, and then tired and finished fourth. It is possible she will relax better Saturday for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. I will use them both.

The top three finishers from the Frizette are also entered.

By the Moon closed fast to win her maiden, was second best in the slop to Condo Commander in the Spinaway, and then was forwardly placed while winning the Frizette.

Wonder Gal and Feathered, the two-three Frizette finishers, tried hard but may have been spinning their wheels in the slop. I want to use these three also.

I will throw in Cristina’s Journey and Top Decile, who rallied from far back in the mud to finish a close second in the Alcibiades after previously winning her debut on the lead at Saratoga.

So here’s the play:

$20 to win on Conquest Eclipse (No. 4) - $20

$10 exacta box Angela Renee (2) and Conquest Eclipse (4) - $20

$1 exacta part wheel with Conquest Eclipse (4) over Feathered (1), Danette (3), Cristina’s Journey (5), Majestic Presence (7), Wonder Gal (10), Top Decile (11), and By the Moon (12) - $7

$3 exacta part wheel with Feathered (1), Danette (3), Cristina’s Journey (5), Majestic Presence (7), Wonder Gal (10), Top Decile (11), and By the Moon (12) over Conquest Eclipse (4) - $21

Total wager: $68

I may also throw in one more $2 exacta box for good luck: Angela Renee (2), Conquest Eclipse (4), Wonder Gal (10) - $12

In that case, the total would be $80

Here are the numbers, without the names:

$20 to win on 4

$10 exacta box 2-4

$1 exacta part wheel 4/1-3-5-7-10-11-12

$3 exacta part wheel 1-3-5-7-10-11-12/4

And possibly, a $2 exacta box 2-4-10