Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf wagering strategy

SUNSET GLOW is the deserving 7-2 morning-line favorite, but she has history working against her as the favorite hasn’t won the Juvenile Fillies Turf since it was established in 2008. She also reportedly did not eat up after arriving in California, and trainer Wesley Ward altered her training schedule, missing a planned workout. Daily Racing Form’s Mile Welsch also mentioned she looked listless on the track in one of his clocker reports. Despite her excellent record, she looks vulnerable in what appears to be a wide-open race.

Europeans have won the last two renewals, and there is an excellent chance they will make it three with OSAILA or QUALIFY.

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Osaila finished in front of Qualify in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud and came back with an easy win in the restricted Tattersalls Millions. Qualify returned with an impressive win in the Group 3 CL & MF Ward, in which they changed tactics and let her ease herself into the race before she made a strong move from last to win going away. She might be the best horse in the field and may be good enough to win despite breaking from post 14.

LADY ELI looks like the best of four horses trained by Chad Brown. She did have a perfect trip winning the Grade 3 Miss Grillo, while stablemates PARTISAN POLITICS and TAMMY THE TORPEDO were compromised by the extremely slow pace, particularly Partisan Politics who could be dangerous if she breaks alertly leaving from the inside post.

QUALITY ROCKS ran a big race in her first try on turf in her first start for trainer Bill Mott in the Grade 3 Jessamine and could take a big step forward here.

CONQUEST HARLANATE is undefeated on grass, and she is coming off a win in the Grade 3 Mazarine on Polytrack, which was little more than a workout for her.

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LADY ZULU improved dramatically when she stretched out to a mile in her latest, and being a half-sister to the $974,000 Grade 2 turf winner Optimizer, she has a right to improve.

The three most likely winners are Lady Eli, Osaila, and Qualify, but I also would add Partisan Politics in multiple wagers.

In the exotics, use Lady Eli, Osaila, and Qualify extensively in the first two spots, with the ones mentioned above as the most widely used horses below them.