Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf: History warns to beware of favorites

ARCADIA, Calif. – A race that was complicated to begin with, Friday’s $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf grew more difficult when three of the top contenders drew the far-outside post positions in a full field of 14 set to run one mile over Santa Anita’s turf course.

My Conquestadory, with two graded stakes wins in as many career starts, landed in post 14, while Testa Rossi and Sky Painter, separated by a nose in the Grade 3 Miss Grillo at Belmont Park, drew posts 12 and 13.

For good measure, Clenor, unbeaten in three starts since coming to Southern California, drew post 10 in a race where the first turn comes up quickly.

Handicapping the Juvenile Fillies Turf is never easy. Favorites are winless in five runnings, and the average win mutuel is $22.80. Three of the beaten favorites came from Europe, and all three finished eighth.[bc_video_id:308740:]

Vorda, a French-bred and -based filly, is the 4-1 morning-line favorite based on her 4-for-5 record. She will be stretching out from six furlongs to a mile.

“She’s pretty quiet. I think she can handle the distance pretty well,” said Patrice Pot, assistant to trainer Philippe Sogorb. “She’s a very talented filly. I’m very confident.”

[BREEDERS’ CUP 2013: Fields with DRF odds and comments]

Trainer Chad Brown, who won this race in 2008 with Maram and finished second last year with Watsdachances, sends out four – Granny Mc’s Kitten, Kitten Kaboodle, Ready to Act, and Testa Rossi. Three are stakes winners, while Ready to Act was on her way to a stakes win when she jumped over the rail in midstretch of the Grade 2 Natalma Stakes at Woodbine.

Testa Rossi brings a four-race winning streak into the Juvenile Fillies Turf, three of those victories achieved in France. In her U.S. debut, Testa Rossi rallied from last to win the Miss Grillo over Sky Painter.

“She just continues to creep forward,” Brown said. “She looks a little better. She’s a touch bigger, she gallops just a touch stronger, she breezes a touch better every week. Since she arrived, she’s a horse that keeps on climbing the ladder and doing everything right and improving. Those are the kind of horses you’re excited about taking to an event like this.”

Brown has had Kitten Kaboodle for only one start, a winning effort in the Grade 3 Jessamine at Keeneland on Oct. 9. She has since come back with two solid workouts at Belmont Park and will get a rider switch to John Velazquez when she breaks from post 4.

“She couldn’t be doing any better,” Brown said.

Granny Mc’s Kitten might offer the most value of the Brown entrants. After winning the P.G. Johnson Stakes as a maiden in her second start, Granny Mc’s Kitten finished fourth as the 9-5 favorite in the Miss Grillo Stakes. Brown said Granny Mc’s Kitten missed a workout leading up to that race due to an illness and might have been a touch short. Since the Miss Grillo, she has worked twice and will get the services of Javier Castellano.

“Her health looks great these last couple of weeks,” Brown said. “She has not lost any time. I don’t have any excuses for her.”

Ready to Act is the wild card in the field. She won her debut sprinting at Saratoga and seemed well on her way to victory in the Natalma when she shied from jockey Rajiv Maragh’s whip and crashed through the inside rail. She was uninjured.

“I think she’s fit enough to run a mile on the turf at Santa Anita effectively with those fillies, or I wouldn’t run her,” Brown said.

Joel Rosario rides Ready to Act from post 11.

My Conquestadory overcame significant trouble to win the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland and must overcome post 14 to win this race.

Trainer Mark Casse said his biggest concern is My Conquestadory getting carried out into the first turn by some contenders who might be trying two turns for the first time.

“A lot of them don’t make it,” he said. “A lot is going to depend on what’s going on inside her.”

Clenor’s late-running style might mean that her post draw is not as detrimental as one would think at first blush. Rafael Bejarano rides.

Sky Painter and Dancing House are contenders for Godolphin Racing and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin.

Nesso, twice beaten by Clenor, moves from post 9 in the Surfer Girl Stakes to the rail. Street Sailing, a new purchase by Team Valor; European imports Al Thakhira and Chriselliam; and the maiden Colonel Joan complete the field.