Breeders' Cup Juvenile favoritism shifts to Pletcher pair
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLE
ARCADIA, Calif. – Todd Pletcher, the trainer of top contenders Daredevil and Carpe Diem, had mixed emotions when he heard about the defection of race favorite American Pharoah from the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
“From a racing fan’s standpoint, I was kind of looking forward to the matchup,” Pletcher said Wednesday at Santa Anita. “I have a lot of respect for how good he is. I also think we have two very good horses. From a handicapping standpoint, it’s a major change to the complexion of the race anytime you take the favorite out.”
American Pharoah, the 2-1 morning-line favorite, was withdrawn from the race Tuesday due to a foot injury. The 1 1/16-mile race lost a multiple Grade 1 winner, potential superstar, and a primary speed horse. The Pletcher duo of Daredevil, the Grade 1 Champagne winner, and Carpe Diem, the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity winner, are likely the two top choices now.
:: Breeders' Cup Juvenile analysis
Daredevil has been brilliant in winning his two races, both over wet tracks. He earned a 107 Beyer Speed Figure for his dominant 2 1/2-length victory in the Champagne.
Pletcher noted that jockey Javier Castellano wrapped up on Daredevil late in the race, and that the track wasn’t playing that quickly.
“It was a very visually impressive performance to run as fast as he did on a track that clearly wasn’t fast,” Pletcher said.
Carpe Diem made the jump from a 5 1/2-furlong maiden win at Saratoga to 1 1/16 miles around two turns when he dominated the Breeders’ Futurity by 6 1/4 lengths at Keeneland.
Since the race, Pletcher said, Carpe Diem “has trained very well.”
“To me, he’s actually improved,” Pletcher said.
Upstart, second to Daredevil in the Champagne, and Calculator and Texas Red, second and third to American Pharoah in the FrontRunner at Santa Anita, top the competition.
Souper Colossal, the undefeated winner of the Sapling Stakes at Monmouth, could now become the primary speed in the race. One Lucky Dane, who becomes Bob Baffert’s lone Juvenile hope with the scratch of American Pharoah, also has early gas.
Lucky Player, Mr. Z, Private Prospect, and The Great War complete the field.
:: BREEDERS' CUP 2014: Post positions and odds
KEY CONTENDERS
Daredevil (Beyers: 107-96)
◗ He earned a gaudy Beyer for his victory in the Champagne. The question is whether he’ll bounce.
“The thing about it is he ran fast enough that he can still react backward and still be faster than anyone else,” Pletcher said.
◗ He has to overcome post 11.
“If you break alertly and get to the first turn without losing too much ground, you could be in a situation where it’s not as congested,” Pletcher said.
Carpe Diem (Beyers: 91-94)
◗ He figures to be a stalking presence under John Velazquez, who said he was impressed with the way Carpe Diem handled the jump from 5 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles in the Breeders’ Futurity.
“He did it really well,” Velazquez said. “That’s the sign of a good horse – very impressive. I hope we can do that again in the Breeders’ Cup.”
:: DRF Live: Real-time updates from the Breeders’ Cup, including live video coverage
Upstart (Last 3 Beyers: 102-95-84)
◗ He was a little farther back than trainer Rick Violette wanted in the Champagne but was one of the only horses to make up ground on a speed-favoring track. Violette likely will have jockey Jose Ortiz send Upstart away from post 12.
“We have to break running and be very aggressive and try to seize a decent position going into the first turn,” Violette said. “Being on a highway, if you want to change lanes, you’re better off to accelerate and get in front of somebody because if you back up, you might be backing up to the back of the pack.”
Calculator (Last 3 Beyers: 95-90-77)
◗ Still a maiden, Calculator finished second to American Pharoah in both the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner Stakes.
◗ His best race came in the FrontRunner, his first race on dirt.
“My horse comes from off the pace,” trainer Peter Miller said. “As long as we get a fair racetrack and a fair pace, I don’t see any reason why we can’t repeat those races.”
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 1 Calculator. Trainer Peter Miller is 16-5-2-2 with a $3.28 ROI over the past five years with 2-year-olds in dirt routes. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
:: Learn more about Formulator | Follow the @DRFFormulator Twitter feed and get free Formulator facts
Souper Colossal (Last 3 Beyers: 87-77-67)
◗ The undefeated winner of the Sapling Stakes, Souper Colossal has ample early speed and flashed it in a half-mile work in 45.57 seconds here Monday.
“I have to tell you, he came out of it like it never happened,” trainer Eddie Plesa Jr. said. “He’s shown absolutely not one negative from the work, whether it be his eating habits, soundness, or demeanor. Having 48 hours to digest what had happened, he’s 110 percent. I couldn’t be any happier.”
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 4 The Great War. Trainer Aidan O'Brien is 13-0-0-1 over the past five years in North American races on dirt. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
:: Learn more about Formulator | Follow the @DRFFormulator Twitter feed and get free Formulator facts
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 6 Lucky Player. Trainer Steve Asmussen is 23-8-2-3 with a $4.81 ROI over the past five years with 2-year-olds in dirt route graded stakes. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
:: Learn more about Formulator | Follow the @DRFFormulator Twitter feed and get free Formulator facts
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 7 Texas Red. Trainer Keith Desormeaux is 36-2-3-11 with a $0.52 ROI over the past five years with 2-year-olds in dirt routes. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
:: Learn more about Formulator | Follow the @DRFFormulator Twitter feed and get free Formulator facts
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 11 One Lucky Dane. Trainer Bob Baffert is 24-6-3-1 with a $3.09 ROI over the past five years with 2-year-olds in Grade 1 dirt routes. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
:: Learn more about Formulator | Follow the @DRFFormulator Twitter feed and get free Formulator facts