Breeders' Cup Juvenile analysis

MIKE WATCHMAKER

CALCULATOR might be a maiden, but he ran very well when second in the FrontRunner, the at-the-distance, over-the-track prep for this. He had a three-wide trip throughout and finished behind only American Pharoah, whom Calculator also chased when second in the Del Mar Futurity two starts back. American Pharoah, of course, would have been the strong favorite in this if he hadn’t been scratched. ONE LUCKY DANE was an impressive route winner over maidens earlier in the Santa Anita meet, running fast enough to be a threat here. Given his pedigree, CARPE DIEM predictably relished the stretch-out to two turns last time and dominated the Breeders’ Futurity; logical. DAREDEVIL galloped in both of his starts, most recently in the Champagne. But this will be his first start around two turns, and on a dry track, and he must overcome a tough outside post.

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DAVE LITFIN

CARPE DIEM benefited from an inside speed bias to win his debut on closing day at Saratoga, then passed a key test in the Breeders’ Futurity by handling a big field after being maneuvered outside into the backstretch. The $1.6 million March purchase may work out a similar trip from close range. The maiden CALCULATOR was three wide throughout the FrontRunner after veering out at the break from the outside and galloped out with good energy past American Pharoah, who would have been favored here. He is entitled to keep improving as he moves inside for his second dirt race. TEXAS RED also is moving forward as the distances get longer and could go forward again after galloping out strongly past the finish in the FrontRunner; big price. ONE LUCKY DANE jumped up with a big win from the rail his first time on dirt. He has a tough draw outside rival speeds BLUE DANCER and SOUPER COLOSSAL.

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BRAD FREE

ONE LUCKY DANE might prove an effective replacement for scratched favorite American Pharaoh, who also is trained by Bob Baffert. 'DANE won a fast Santa Anita maiden race last time, fast enough to warrant a jump to G1. He holds the home-court advantage and will be forwardly placed, where most winners come from here. CARPE DIEM followed his romping debut an even better performance in a G1 at Keeneland. He sat off the pace, inhaled his rivals, and won by more than six. Wow. No telling how good he might be. UPSTART rallied to second in the G1 Champagne, a race won by the pacesetter. With a quick pace up front, the New York-bred UPSTART looms a serious threat from off the pace. DAREDEVIL splashed his way to a pair of romping wins at Belmont. We'll see how he acts on "fast." The feeling is it won't matter. Good colt in a good race.

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