Breeders Crown: Elimination races and the impact on the finals

In the next 24 hours, many of you are going to cozy up to your favorite set of past performances and attempt to decipher the 12 Breeders Crown winners along with which horses may finish in the top three or four spots in each race. It's a difficult task that I hope to make a bit easier for those of you who make it past the first paragraph.

Handicapping is simply the art of using past performance along with outside variables to select the right horses, or at least the horses which if provided reasonable opportunity will succeed. The process has to start with what we learned from the past, and that begins with the elimination races from October 23 and 24.

Starting with the 23rd, which included 12 elimination races, the weather was certainly worth considering. Only three horses on the entire 15-race card were able to win on the lead and two of those went off at odds of 1-2 or lower, so they were supposed to win. There was a strong, steady stretch tailwind which resulted in slow second quarters and insanely-fast final quarters. Consider this: nine of the 12 Breeders crown elimination races had a second quarter of 29 4/5 or slower.

Despite only seeing three wire-to-wire winners, the track was far from having a closer's bias. Only one winner on the card came from further back than fourth at the three-quarter call to win. So what do we take away from Friday's races?

Closers were actually at a huge disadvantage on Friday because they were never provided the opportunity to rally into quick (or even reasonable) fractions. For example, how was a horse like Caviart Lotus expected to win when he was five lengths behind Southwind Gendry at three-quarters and the leader finished in 25 4/5? Caviart Lotus paced a 25 2/5 final quarter and couldn't come close. In the same race, Literl Lad Hanover also came home in 25 2/5 and also had no shot.

None of the above means that a horse like Southwind Gendry is not going to win Friday's $600,000 2-Year-Old Colt Pace final. If you think he is simply better than the foes from his elimination and can handle the undefeated Perfect Sting, I wouldn't sway you from backing him, but there is no way he is going to be on the lead after slow fractions and able to sprint home as he pleases.

With drier and less windy conditions on Saturday, the track played more true to form. Six horses were able to win on the front from 14 races and overall I'd put more weight into the efforts we saw as a factor in the handicapping process.

There are nuggets of information which can be pulled from elimination races, like general form and soundness. That said, when 55% to 70% of the horses in a race are guaranteed a spot in the final, the importance of finish position is very low. We simply want to see a horse who is maintaining their position or gaining in the stretch . . . one who seems fresh and ready to show more next week.

Those who purchase the DRF Harness Eye past performances can check out my individual performance comments for every horse in the eliminations as well as The Red Mile comments from horses who didn't require eliminations. Below I'll cover a few highlights of horses that caught my eye:

We already covered Caviart Lotus. Whether he can beat Southwind Gendry or Perfect Sting is still in question but the price should be right if you feel strongly.

The elimination line doesn't look particularly appealing on Caviart Audrey, but it also doesn't show that she was under tight restraint by driver Yannick Gingras while sitting behind very slow fractions. According to trainer Nancy Takter, the filly flipped her palate and had an upper respiratory infection. Takter said a bit and bridle change are coming this week. It's worth noting that Gingras chose off her on Friday, so maybe that's a sign that he doesn't expect her to be 100% in the final.

Gotta Believe took a clear step in the right direction by showing early speed and the ability to finish well in the stretch. Too bad he drew post 9.

Party Girl Hill uncorked a 25 1/5 final quarter to win a race she had no business winning and she did it under confident handling by driver Dexter Dunn. She was so impressive that driver Tim Tetrick, who handles fellow elimination winner Lyons Sentinel remarked that Party Girl Hill is probably the best pacing filly he's seen in his life.

It wasn't an elimination race (just a prep) but Sectionline Bigry faced late stretch traffic while coming home in 24 4/5 after some of the best pacers in the world crawled the middle half in 58 2/5.

No one gets by Tall Dark Stranger. No one! He looked vulnerable as usual in the stretch of his elimination and while the PP line makes it seem like Warrawee Vital was getting closer, to the naked eye they could've gone around another lap and no one was passing him.

I haven't decided yet whether it was simply the illusion of the slow pace or not, but Manchego finished in 25 1/5 and was absolutely loaded with trot at the end of her mile.

Kissin In The Sand showed some early speed, came uncovered and couldn't have looked any better rolling past Horse of the Year Shartin N. If there is a sharper horse in the sport right now, I don't know who it is.

Amigo Volo was wrapped up late in a track-record performance. Enough said!

The above thoughts are simply general observations. I will select some of the above horses as my top pick and others perhaps will fall into the top 3 or 4. Try to remember that while last week is important, it is just one variable in the puzzle. The finals will most likely be contested with completely different pace scenarios and that alone will shift the outcome of any race.

The Friday and Saturday Breeders Crown cards at Harrah's Hoosier Park are both spectacular. There are 15 races each night with a 6 p.m. start time. Both nights offer a $20,000 and $40,000 guaranteed Pick 4, on races 8 and 12 Friday and 7 and 12 Saturday. Saturday also has a $10,000 guaranteed Pick 8 featuring all Breeders Crown races starting in race 8.

Click on the dates for my full-card analysis for Friday and Saturday.