Harrah's Hoosier Park: Analysis for Saturday 10/31

BEST BET: PARTY GIRL HILL (10th)
SPOT PLAY: SORELLA (9th)
Race 7 - $20K GTD Pick 4 Ticket: 6,7 / 4,7 / 4 / 2 = $2
Race 8 - $10K GTD Pick 8 Ticket: 4,7 / 4 / 2 / 2,3,7,8 / 3 / 1,3 / 1,3,5,9 / 1,9,10 = $38.40
Race 12 - $40K GTD Pick 4 Ticket: 3 / 1,3 / 1,3,5,9 / 1,9,10 = $12

Race 1: Non-winners 4 races or $47,500 life - Pick 5

(4) CROOK BOYZZ was part of the early pace in an insane 53 4/5 half last time and tired as expected. Gelding lands in a field lacking early speed to his outside and should be able to control the action. (2) ALWAYSTELLTHETRUTH has decent form and getting Dexter Dunn in the bike is a big plus. (8) GOLD STAR MAJOR hasn't started in a few weeks but does drop back down to the level of his last win.

Race 2: Pegasus 3YO Colt Trot

(6) IT'S ACADEMIC was hammered down for $220,000 in Lexington but apparently that didn't meet the reserve because the ownership didn't change. Normally missing four weeks would trouble me, but the failed sale probably played a role. If he's anything close to 100%, he wins. (4) SERMON won the Circle City from post 9 and has been sharp for some time. (5) BOURBON EXPRESS picks up Tim Tetrick here and lands a better post tonight; outside chance if the top one falters.

Race 3: Senditin $100,000 Claiming Challenge - Pick 4

(5) GD WESTERN JOE got some class relief and rolled to an easy win at Dayton. He seems like the most likely horse to get claimed if anyone does as he's made that amount each of the last two years and is only 5 years old. (3) MIGHTY SANTANA N has performed very well in both starts here; dangerous. (9) PYRO added Yannick Gingras to the team last week and went down the road. He has the speed to overcome the outside post and the talent to post a big mile.

Race 4: Jerry Landess Memorial Invitational

(6) PACE BABY PACE was used hard last time after missing 17 days and paid the price. Gingras will certainly put her in play and give her a chance to upset (9) MISS YOU N, who has won three straight and is the deserving odds-on favorite despite the bad post. (7) CHECKS ON THE WAY is another one with early speed and form; using.

Race 5: Hannelore Hanover Invitational

(5) SWAN CHASE was razor sharp before running into Gimpanzee and Manchego last week. He may not be the best horse in the field but he has the post position edge. (8) PERLUCKY came up just short after missing a month of action; very dangerous. (9) PURE CHANCE is a stakes-caliber mare facing the boys from the worst post; mixed feelings. (7) BRIDGE TO JESSE'S is a millionaire coming off a win who is tough to leave off your multi-race tickets.

Race 6: Pegasus 3YO Colt Pace - Pick 5

(7) CATCH THE FIRE has been on the Grand Circuit much more than his foes today. Hopefully we'll see big early speed tonight. (3) TATTOO ARTIST skipped the Breeders Crown and instead shows up in this lesser spot, likely looking at a stakes engagement next weekend here. If he's 100%, he'll be tough. (4) CLEVER CHARACTER seems to be coming on at the end of his 3-year-old season and might just be this good. (11) SAWYERS DESIRE added Dunn to the team here last week and posted a career-best mile.

Race 7: Phil Langley Memorial Invitational - $20K GTD Pick 4

(7) BRASSY HANOVER kept up admirably with perhaps the best older pacer in the sport who will be the favorite in the Breeders Crown Open Pace. His Hoosier experience makes me lean here over the unbelievably sharp (6) STARS ALIGN A as he goes for four straight. (8) TELLMEABOUTIT is certainly good enough to win but he'll need a lifetime-best mile.

Race 8: $300K Breeders Crown Mare Trot - $10K GTD Pick 8

(4) WHEN DOVESCRY sizzled at The Meadowlands as a prep for this race. She's been handled with care all season and if they are ever going to take the gloves off in 2020, it's tonight. (7) MANCHEGO couldn't have looked any better last week when finally raced from off the pace last Saturday. It's hard to see her trotting past them from first-over and I'm not inclined to bet her on the lead, so I'll play against on top. (5) PLUNGE BLUE CHIP has missed time but that didn't matter when she set a world record at Delaware. I'd like her better on a track with a shorter stretch.

Race 9: $500K Breeders Crown 3YO Filly Trot

(4) SORELLA is racing barefoot this week and she is a second faster when she takes off her shoes. That alone is enough for me considering she is right there when she keeps the shoes on. (3) MAY BABY had absolutely no shot in her elimination but did enough to make the final. I'm hoping driver James Yoder leaves hard this week and gives her a shot. (7) HYPNOTIC AM has never missed the board in her career but has been coming up just short at the wire way too often for me to jump on board. (5) SPOILED PRINCESS is arguably the sharpest horse in the race but I think she'll be an underlay. (1) NEXT LEVEL STUFF has won three of her last four but may need a lifetime best mile to take this race.

Race 10: $500K Breeders Crown 3YO Filly Pace - Pick 6

(2) PARTY GIRL HILL effortlessly beat the boys at The Red Mile two starts back and was a confident winner again last week. She's perfect in 14 starts this year and will likely get tons of respect on the track. (4) PEAKY SNEAKY has stepped up her game in recent weeks and has the early speed to take charge and secure a winning spot if the top one shows any weakness. (3) LYONS SENTINEL is a very, very good filly who was unlucky to be born the same year as #2. Like #4, she has a shot if things go wrong for the top one. (7) JK FIRST LADY hasn't thrown in many bad races in her career but will have to work really hard to make the board tonight.

Race 11: $500K Breeders Crown 3YO Colt Trot - Pick 5

(2) AMIGO VOLO is on an amazing run right now. I'm not sure he ranks as a lock for me, which means I should probably pick someone else since he'll be 3-5, but I just can't settle on a horse to beat him. (7) BACK OF THE NECK raced well with no shot in his elimination. We've seen him rally nicely off cover and maybe he'll get the ideal setup at a price. (8) BEADS is always a threat when he minds his manners. I don't think he was ever getting to Amigo Volo last time. Perhaps he'll go out a winner for this team as he is in the sale at Timonium next weekend. (3) READY FOR MONI will remove the ear hood this week as trainer Nancy Takter tries to get him right for the final. His best effort makes him a major contender and probably nets him seasonal honors.

Race 12: $300K Breeders Crown Mare Pace - $40K GTD Pick 4

(3) KISSIN IN THE SAND is operating on a different plane than the rest of these right now. She's really blossomed during her 5-year-old season and seems unbeatable unless (6) SHARTIN N finds her "A" game. (5) WARRAWEE UBEAUT raced much better with Lasix added last week and could be ready to pick up her game after a tough 4-year-old campaign. Shartin was herself unbeatable at one point in the year but she just doesn't seem 100% right now and the way the top one is racing, nothing less would give her a chance to win. Indiana queen (2) ROCKIN NOLA has home-field advantage but it might not be enough.

Race 13: $500K Breeders Crown 3YO Colt Pace

(1) TALL DARK STRANGER has proven to be one of the gamest horses I've ever seen. It's been so long since his only loss in 2020 that I can barely remember it. At this point I'm not convinced that another horse can best him in a stretch duel, so unless (3) CATTLEWASH is prepared to deliver another monster wire-to-wire mile where he can get the jump on Tall Dark Stranger, they are all racing for second. Cattlewash and (4) WARRAWEE VITAL are the obvious threats to the favorite and both possess high early speed. (7) CAPTAIN BARBOSSA can't possibly leave in this spot and that may be a good thing. If Bongiorno can latch onto good cover, I wouldn't be shocked if this guy got into the top three.

Race 14: $500K Breeders Crown Open Trot

(3) GIMPANZEE gets a very narrow call for me here over (5) ATLANTA because he should make the front easily enough and potentially get a chance to relax for a moment in the pocket or three-hole while evaluating next moves. Atlanta is without a doubt the best horse in the race but needs to come off a helmet in my opinion and I just can't take even money knowing that fact. (1) MISSION ACCEPTED is clearly two steps slower than Atlanta and a step slower than Gimpanzee. That said, the inside post is a good spot for him and if they mix it up at all, he could find room up the passing lane to make some noise. I've been waiting all year for (9) CRYSTAL FASHION to step up with a big mile. Post 9 is difficult but not an impossible spot.

Race 15: $500K Breeders Crown Open Pace - $20K GTD Hi-5

With Bettor's Wish stuck in post 9, I'm going to take a shot with (1) SECTIONLINE BIGRY. Everyone can see that he came home in 24 4/5 last week but what's missing is that it could've been 24 3/5 with less traffic. I'm expecting to see a much more aggressive drive here and hoping for some luck on the trip end. (9) BETTOR'S WISH is 100% the best horse in the race and he can certainly overcome the bad draw with any reasonable trip. (10) THIS IS THE PLAN upset here a month ago in the Hoosier Park Pacing Derby and he clearly sharp enough to win with the right setup. (7) CENTURY FARROH has big early speed and will certainly be a player but I'm leaning to using him underneath only.