Brad Free's Preakness analysis
There is one good reason to bet against NYQUIST – price. The odds are likely to be low for the undefeated Kentucky Derby winner. And yet the Preakness also is likely to produce the same result for Nyquist as his eight previous starts – victory.
Nyquist is versatile. He has speed but does not require the lead. His adaptability helped him win the Kentucky Derby from a pressing position. He won the Florida Derby setting the pace; he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile rallying wide from eighth. In that case, he won despite a bad trip. Nyquist usually gets a good trip because he creates his own trip. He is drawn one stall outside the likely pacesetter.
Nyquist is getting faster. His Derby earned a 103 Beyer Speed Figure, his first triple-digit route figure. He has won seven graded stakes and possesses an innate ability to fight off challenges. What about mud? Nyquist won his only start on wet. Four years ago, trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Mario Gutierrez pulled off the Derby-Preakness double with I’ll Have Another. Historical footnote: Ten of the last 20 Derby winners also won the Preakness (19 ran).
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The lightly raced STRADIVARI enters with form that is similar to 2006 Preakness upset winner Bernardini (three starts, unproven Grade 1 class, and a triple-digit figure last out). Stradivari won an allowance last out by more than 14 lengths with a 100 Beyer, though he had little behind him. The second, third, and fifth finishers returned to finish off the board. Stradivari had a big work last week at Belmont and has room to improve. He is a fast horse who is unproven against top horses.
Derby runner-up EXAGGERATOR, the likely second favorite, will try again. He’s finished behind Nyquist four times already. Exaggerator always shows up, however, and he did win the Santa Anita Derby over a wet track while also benefitting from a fast pace. For Exaggerator, wet is okay. Two other wet-track starts include a Grade 3 win and a Grade 1 runner-up finish.
Exaggerator faces a historical challenge. Over the last 20 years, Derby runners-up are 11-0-3-3 in the Preakness. In all 11 cases, the Preakness odds were lower than the Derby odds. Prairie Bayou in 1993 was the most recent Derby runner-up to win the Preakness.
LAOBAN, a maiden, ran against the race shape in finishing fourth in the Blue Grass. The 1-2-3 finishers rallied from the back of the field. Win or lose, Laoban will keep the pace honest.
Collected has speed, but his Grade 3 win last out was over a maiden who subsequently lost a maiden race. Uncle Lino is likely to set the pace. From post 2, he must go. The closer Cherry Wine will try to exploit the pace scenario. Lani split the Derby field in his U.S. debut. He might improve.