Bernier: Pick four for Preakness undercard
The $500,000-guaranteed pick four on the Preakness undercard Saturday at Pimlico offers a little bit of everything, from superstars to blue-collar allowance runners. Take everything I’ve written with a grain of salt simply because the weather forecast calls for legitimate rain in the Baltimore area, and it would seem as though the turf events could be in danger of coming off the grass.
RACE 6 – JAMES W. MURPHY
Few of these runners are particularly well bred for turf, and what running they’ve already done leaves quite a bit to be desired. COPINGAWAY (1) owns the highest last-out Beyer Speed Figure in the field (87), but with a career record of 2 for 19, he’s hard to trust. HE’LL PAY (2) emerged victorious in his most recent stakes start, but that was on Polytrack, and he earned a career-best Beyer that day by nearly 20 points. His turf form isn’t spectacular, and I have no idea if he’s turned the corner or if he just took advantage of a bad field. OUSBY (4) may be the most consistent runner in the field, but that doesn’t mean he’s the fastest. His tactical speed makes him a threat. CONQUEST WINDYCITY (5) has yet to win on a turf course, and his best effort to date isn’t fast enough to win against this group. He’ll need to improve. AQUAPHOBIA (8) has at least run reasonably well on turf in his short career, but the way he flattened out in his most recent start at Keeneland doesn’t instill much confidence. I CAME TO PARTY (9) is a bit of a wild card simply because he’s moving the right way for trainer Gerald Brooks. His dam was a decent runner on synthetic, albeit in sprints, and if he can successfully transition to the turf, he could pop at a big number. This is a wide-open event, and I’m not opposed to using the “ALL” button to my advantage.
HORSES: ALL (1-9)
RACE 7 – N2X
There’s plenty of early foot signed on in this event, but if the lightly raced (and clearly “ouchy”) CHIEF ISTAN (2) can come remotely close to replicating his Keeneland effort in April 2015, he’s a winner. The 101 Beyer he earned that day is head and shoulders better than anything this field is capable of producing, but the very long layoff must be a concern. QUEEQUEG (9) is a gritty blue-collar sort, and he’s far too sharp to ignore. He’ll likely need to run the race of his life, but it’s nice to know that he doesn’t absolutely need the lead to win. The coupled entry of GAMBLER’S GHOST/OLD UPSTART (1/1A) will be included in this play; if things get warm up front, Old Upstart could be rolling from off the pace and take advantage of circumstances for Edgar Prado.
HORSES: 1/1A – Gambler’s Ghost/Old Upstart, 2 – Chief Istan, 9 – Queequeg
RACE 8 – THE VERY ONE
I have very little desire to attempt to defeat LADY SHIPMAN (12) in this turf sprint; on Beyers, she buries this field, and if any horse can overcome a disastrous post position, it’s this filly. Her return to the United States was an electric performance, and it would be quite surprising to see her not emerge victorious here. If there’s anyone who’s going to take her down, perhaps it’s the lightly raced EXAGGERATED (9) for Arnaud Delacour. I didn’t love her Giant’s Causeway Stakes performance because she had everything her own way on the front end – and she certainly won’t be afforded such a comfortable trip here. I’m not running to the windows to play against Lady Shipman, but I’ll add Exaggerated to my small ticket because Delacour’s numbers in turf sprints are off the charts.
HORSES: 9 – Exaggerated, 12 – Lady Shipman
RACE 9 – CHICK LANG
COUNTERFORCE (6) has shown the ability to adapt to any sort of pace scenario, and it’s nice to see that two runners have exited the Bachelor from Oaklawn to win next out (I Will Score, 82 Beyer; Texas Chrome, 82 Beyer). There appears to be plenty of early foot signed on in this event, and that should play into the hands of this Steve Asmussen trainee. Look for him to be rolling late from off the pace.
HORSES: 6 – Counterforce
THE PLAY
$0.50 pick four: ALL (1-9) with 1/1A, 2, 9 with 9, 12 with 6 = $27