Belmont Stakes 2021: Separating the contenders with DRF Formulator
By historical standards, the eight-runner field in the Belmont Stakes is already small. It’s even smaller considering three entrants are field-fillers with little more than a prayer.
But five runners in the Belmont are legit – once-beaten favorite Essential Quality, Preakness winner Rombauer, Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Hot Rod Charlie, likely pacesetter Rock Your World, and late-runner Known Agenda.
All five are in with a look. And there is no place better to look closely than DRF Formulator. Daily Racing Form’s online past-performance tool provides essential information that allows handicappers to make well-informed decisions.
(As the DRF Race of the Day on Saturday, free DRF Formulator past performances for the Belmont Stakes are available here.)
This column illustrates Formulator observations on the quintet of genuine Belmont contenders, in reverse order of program odds.
Known Agenda, listed at 6-1, earned a start in the Kentucky Derby by winning the Florida Derby. But a Formulator review of the field that Known Agenda defeated at Gulfstream Park casts doubt on his credentials.
By clicking the date (27Mar21-14GP) in Known Agenda’s Formulator past performances, the race chart of the Florida Derby pops up. The “Next Race” button shows how each starter fared next time out. It is not pretty. Six that finished behind Known Agenda ran back; only two hit the board. Known Agenda beat a weak bunch.
The bad trip Known Agenda suffered in the Kentucky Derby is well-chronicled, but maybe ninth was the best finish one could expect. (Full disclosure: I picked Known Agenda to win the Derby. In hindsight, particularly the subsequent starts by those he beat in the Florida Derby, the selection might not have been very astute.)
Rock Your World, listed at 9-2, earned his start in the Kentucky Derby by winning the Santa Anita Derby in front-running fashion. By clicking the date of the race (3Apr21-8SA), the chart pops up. It turns out, he beat a good field.
Santa Anita Derby runner-up Medina Spirit won the Kentucky Derby next out, third place Dream Shake finished second in the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile. This is found by clicking the names of Medina Spirit and Dream Shake in the Santa Anita Derby race chart.
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On the other hand, Rock Your World benefitted by a Santa Anita surface that favored inside speed in routes. How would one know?
The “Race Chart Archive” button is accessible in Formulator past performances, to the right of “Santa Anita R8”. The archive provides access to Santa Anita charts, including three dirt routes on April 3 – races 2, 6, and 8. All three were won by rail-trippers with speed.
Rock Your World, inside speed, benefitted by advantageous conditions winning the Santa Anita Derby. As for his 17th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, Rock Your World was eliminated at the break.
The Formulator-accessible race chart commentary tells the tale: “ROCK YOUR WORLD was off a step slow then significantly jostled between horses soon after, failed to achieve early position, got hung out in the five path around both turns and faded.”
Clearly, he had an excuse.
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As for his trainer-jockey combination, few are more effective in graded stakes than John Sadler and Joel Rosario. By clicking Sadler’s name in the Formulator past performances, a list of all Sadler starters the past five years pops up.
The “Customize” button allows one to filter Jockey and Class by clicking “Use Today’s Jockey” in the Jockey section and “Stakes/Graded Stakes” in the Class section. The past five years, Sadler and Rosario are 10 for 32 in graded stakes, a 31 percent win rate and $2.28 return for each $2 wager. One could do worse than bet blind on Sadler-Rosario.
Hot Rod Charlie, listed at 7-2, finished third in the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby. That should alleviate any concerns regarding distance. For the sake of illustration, his pedigree is worth scrutiny in Formulator.
By clicking the name of sire Oxbow in Hot Rod Charlie’s past performances, stallion data pops up. It reveals that progeny of Oxbow win dirt routes at 17 percent, a higher rate than any other distance-surface category. The figure also is 3 points above the 14 percent average for all sires, a number also included in the data.
But the female side of Hot Rod Charlie’s pedigree is short, as in short distance. Clicking his dam, Indian Miss, reveals her career past performances. She lost both starts, then retired to become an outstanding broodmare. By clicking “Sibling PPs,” the past performances of all Indian Miss progeny are shown.
Her best is champion sprinter Mitole; two others also were pure sprinters. The point is, the bottom side of Hot Rod Charlie’s pedigree is distance-challenged. Considering his third in the Kentucky Derby, pedigree might not matter. Just something to be aware of.
One other note about Hot Rod Charlie concerns his win in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, a race not typically productive for Triple Crown races. However, clicking the race date (20Mar-21-14FG) and reviewing past performances of those he beat, it turns out Hot Rod Charlie did beat a good field in the Louisiana Derby. Runner-up Midnight Bourbon finished second in the Preakness; sixth place Mandaloun finished second in the Kentucky Derby.
Rombauer, listed at 3-1, won the Preakness. Who did he beat at Pimlico? The runner-up Midnight Bourbon previously finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby. The third-place finisher was Medina Spirit, first across the wire in the Kentucky Derby with a cloud over his head. One okay runner, one very good runner in Medina Spirit.
Deeper in Rombauer’s past performances is his third in the Blue Grass at Keeneland in which he was crushed by both Essential Quality and Highly Motivated. They finished fourth and sixth in the Kentucky Derby. Before that, Rombauer defeated the unheralded filly Javanica on a synthetic surface at Golden Gate Fields.
Rombauer was a longshot in the Preakness for good reason. His form suggested he was up against it. Everything came together perfectly (pace, competition) for a performance he could be hard-pressed to repeat. Or maybe the light bulb went on and his Preakness win was legit. If so, Rombauer is a bona fide Belmont contender. I lean the other way, with minimal conviction.
Essential Quality, listed at 2-1, finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby even while running arguably the best race of his career. He was wide start to finish. How does one know? By reading the comment lines in the Derby race chart, accessible in Formulator.
“ESSENTIAL QUALITY bumped repeatedly with ROCK YOUR WORLD at the start, was hustled for position through the stretch the first time, settled five wide leaving the first turn, commenced his attack five wide through the second turn, took dead aim entering the stretch but wilted in the final yards.”
It was a horrible trip for Essential Quality, and his first career loss. But the truth is, he ran super.
One of my favorite Formulator stats regards trainer. Specifically, how do the trainer’s horses perform when expectations are highest? Specifically, how does the trainer do with favorites?
Essential Quality’s trainer Brad Cox is phenomenal with favorites in graded stakes. The information is found by clicking Cox’s name in Essential Quality’s past performances, and applying the “Closing Odds/Favorites” filter and “Class/Stakes/Graded Stakes.”
The past five years, Cox is 49 for 109 in graded stakes, a 45 percent win rate and impressive flat-bet profit ($2.23 ROI per $2 win bet).
That statistic undermines my stubborn opinion that Essential Quality is a Belmont underlay at 2-1. Based on Formulator, I am flat wrong.
For the record, my top four Belmont choices in order are: Hot Rod Charlie, Rock Your World, Known Agenda, and Essential Quality.
But based on Essential Quality’s impossible trip in the Kentucky Derby, and his trainer’s superb stats with graded stakes favorites, I will not argue with any Formulator user who concludes Essential Quality is a standout in the final leg of the Triple Crown.