Belmont Stakes 2021: Brad Free's picks and analysis

The consistent and reliable HOT ROD CHARLIE, one of five legitimate contenders in the 2021 Belmont Stakes, gets the call based on improving form, established class, and the likelihood of a forwardly placed trip among the first three pacesetters/pressers.

Each start by Hot Rod Charlie has been better than the start before, including his perfect-trip third in the Kentucky Derby. He saved ground just off the pace, angled out, and was third across the wire. No excuses, none needed. He ran well and got beat.

Hot Rod Charlie has been among the leaders of the division since his runner-up finish last fall in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He has tactical speed to establish a forward position, and should be in the right spot to pounce turning for home. In order to win the Belmont, he will have to catch the controlling speed.

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Front-runner ROCK YOUR WORLD was eliminated at the break in the Kentucky Derby. He was squeezed back, unable to establish a forward position, and sputtered while the horse he previously crushed in the Santa Anita Derby wired the Kentucky Derby.

Assuming a clean start in this smaller field, Rock Your World should make the lead in a race that is light on pace. As he showed winning the Santa Anita Derby by open lengths, Rock Your World can dazzle when he dictates the tempo. If he gets loose and gets comfortable, he could be long gone in the Belmont.

KNOWN AGENDA ran better than looked finishing ninth in the Kentucky Derby. He was shuffled early, raced near the back, and finished well in a race otherwise dominated by forwardly placed runners. The “race shape” was against Known Agenda. His breakout victory two back in the Florida Derby suggested he fits with the best. The uncertainty is whether he is a pace-dependent closer, or if he can adapt to a slower tempo. As potential fifth betting choice, Known Agenda might offer the best value among the contenders.

Likely favorite ESSENTIAL QUALITY might be ranked too low by this handicapper. Based on his wide trip in the Kentucky Derby, one could argue he was best even while finishing fourth by a length. He lost ground throughout, on the far turn in particular, while the top three finishers saved ground. Under the circumstances, Essential Quality ran well while suffering the first loss of his career.

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The knock regarding Essential Quality is likely low odds in a seemingly competitive field. Except for Triple Crown winners in 2015 and 2018, and not counting the 2020 Belmont at nine furlongs, favorites have fallen short the past 15 years. Essential Quality commands respect as a likely underlay. And of course, underlays do win.

Rombauer won the Preakness in decisive fashion, though he faces a tougher field.