2022 Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 9

WHO’S HOT

Morello is the newest member of the Derby Watch top 20, moving onto the list following his runaway victory in the Gotham, mirroring his first two starts. He’s 3 for 3 and has an important 50 points toward a berth in the Kentucky Derby on May 7. He is 15-1 on the Derby line of Marty McGee of Daily Racing Form. The odds among the top contenders have tightened. Smile Happy is the lukewarm favorite at 6-1, and there are four horses – Classic Causeway, Epicenter, Forbidden Kingdom, and Simplification – right behind him at 8-1. Forbidden Kingdom and Simplification were the biggest market movers over the past week, dropping from their 20-1 prices a week ago following victories in the San Felipe and Fountain of Youth, respectively. In Due Time, second in the Fountain of Youth, had his odds cut from 50-1 to 20-1.

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WHO’S NOT

To make room for Morello, Pioneer of Medina, most recently fourth in the Risen Star, was removed from the list. Several horses saw their prices float north on McGee’s line, most notably Rattle N Roll, who was sixth in the Fountain of Youth. He’s now 30-1, twice his price of a week ago. Emmanuel, fourth in the Fountain of Youth after a compromised trip, is up to 15-1 from last week’s 10-1.

ON THE BUBBLE

If anyone other than Classic Causeway, Major General, or Shipsational – who are already on the list – can win the Tampa Bay Derby on Saturday, that horse would move into the top 20 owing to earning 50 points for the victory.