2021 Road to the Derby: El Camino Real Derby analysis

Listed, $101,350 El Camino Real Derby, 1 1/8 miles (all weather), Golden Gate Fields, Feb. 13, 2021
(10 Derby qualifying points for first, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: Rombauer, by Twirling Candy

Trainer: Michael McCarthy

Jockey: Kyle Frey

Owners: John and Diane Fradkin

Beyer Speed Figure: 84

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It’s hard to know what – if anything – can be gleaned from this race, being as it attracted a fairly soft field with the exception of ROMBAUER, had only half the runners even nominated to the Triple Crown, and was run on an all-weather surface.

Rombauer is certainly proving to be an adaptable colt. He has won on grass, was second in a Grade 1 on dirt, and now has won on all-weather, while racing at four different tracks in his last four starts. This was his first start since finishing fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. How much he’s progressed since then won’t really be known until he returns to dirt and faces top-level competition.

In this race, Rombauer – wearing front leg wraps for the first time – broke out slightly at the start, but it mattered not, as he has no early speed and trailed into the first turn while saving ground. He remained well off the lead to the far turn, commenced a rally while splitting rivals, was floated to the four path midway on the turn, then closed sharply to get up the beat the filly JAVANICA.

Javanica, who finished second, raced two to three paths wide while in the clear and mid-pack around the first turn, was hustled along in the three path on the far turn, took the lead a furlong out, and just failed to hold off the winner while finishing well clear of everyone else. She has finished first or second in five straight races on turf or all-weather.

GOVENOR’S PARTY, who was third, had a career-best Beyer of 52 in six prior starts, which is an indictment of who finished behind him. He was three paths wide while towards the back half of the field around the first turn, was put to heavy pressure three furlongs out, yet stayed with Rombauer for much of the far turn while moving to the three path. He drifted in in upper stretch while on his wrong lead, finally swapped over, and continued his extended run to get up for third.

IT’S MY HOUSE, who was fourth, broke sharply and established a clear lead into the first turn, faced brief pressure entering the backstretch but re-established a clear lead, widened on his opposition heading around the far turn, came off the bend with a clear lead but steadily tired in the final furlong. He only had two sprints prior to this, so this wasn’t a bad effort all things considered, but he probably will appreciate a shorter trip.

WASPIRANT, who was fifth, saved ground while just behind the leader around the first turn, was even with Javanica with a half-mile to go, got through inside for much of the far turn before angling to the three path, but had little to offer the final furlong. He’s been fed a steady diet of stakes since a low-fig maiden win and just is not progressing.

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PETRUCHIO, who was sixth, raced between rivals while tracking It’s My House around the first turn, was on the leader’s hip entering the backstretch before It’s My House again kicked clear, put up no fight when Javanica ranged up outside him nearing the top of the lane, and steadily faded through the stretch.

TESORO, who was seventh, broke a step slowly, was a bit rank early, and wound up toward the rear of the field in the two path around the first turn. He was even with Rombauer three furlongs out while in the three path, tried to lug out, and never was competitive at any point.

PLAY CHICKEN, who finished last of eight, was just behind and outside It’s My House in the three path around the first turn, stayed in that stalking position down the backstretch, but went in reverse when asked to keep up three furlongs out, faltered badly, and was sympathetically ridden through the stretch, the second straight race where he capitulated.