2011 Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for Feb. 25

Who's Hot

The Factor and Sway Away, the one-two finishers in last Sunday’s San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita, are the two additions to the top 20 of this week’s Derby Watch. The Factor, listed as an On the Bubble horse a week ago, is 15-1 on the Kentucky Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. Sway Away is 20-1 on Watchmaker’s line. Mucho Macho Man, the winner of the Risen Star Stakes last Saturday at Fair Grounds, is also now 20-1 after being 30-1 a week ago. Santiva, the Risen Star runner-up, also had his price cut from 30-1 to 20-1.

Who's Not

Clubhouse Ride (injury) and Decisive Moment (poor performance) were dropped from the top 20. Machen, fourth in the Risen Star, saw his price rise from 15-1 to 40-1 on Watchmaker’s line. J P’s Gusto, a troubled second in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on Monday, is also now 40-1 after being 30-1 a week ago.

On the Bubble

Archarcharch, the Southwest winner, just missed the cut this week. Astrology and Stay Thirsty also remain prominent on this list. Casper’s Touch and Shackleford will stake their claim to the top 20 in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on Saturday at Gulfstream Park.

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