04/02/2014 3:06PM

Kentucky Derby: Pressure's on for Candy Boy in Santa Anita Derby

Shigeki Kikkawa
Candy Boy earned only 10 points for this victory in the Robert Lewis in February and needs a strong race in the Santa Anita Derby to make the Kentucky Derby.

John Sadler, the trainer of Candy Boy, and Lee Searing, who owns Candy Boy with his wife, Susan, knew it was a calculated risk to manage Candy Boy the way they have this spring, running him in a Kentucky Derby prep worth 10 points for first, skipping one worth 50 points to the winner, and then knowing that a race worth 100 for first would determine their fate for the May 3 Derby.

It is high risk, but it could also be high reward.

The risk was starkly illustrated last Saturday, when Cairo Prince, who has had a schedule in Florida similar to Candy Boy’s in California, finished fourth in the Florida Derby, putting in jeopardy his chances of making the Derby field, what with his current 24 points.

The reward, Sadler believes, is potentially having a horse ideally prepared for the rigors of the Derby and the Triple Crown.

[DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | Who's hot, who's not]

But first Candy Boy has to run well on Saturday in the Grade 1, $1 million Santa Anita Derby. If he does, Candy Boy would head to Louisville as one of the elite contenders for this year’s Derby. If he’s as flat as Cairo Prince was last Saturday, a Derby start would be in doubt.

“We knew it was risky, but we thought this was in the best interests of the horse, and that comes first,” Sadler said Wednesday. “The spacing works if you go into it from this perspective – is your goal with the Kentucky Derby trying to win it, or just trying to get there?

“If we get unlucky in the race, it is what it is. But we felt going into the year that this was the best plan. If he belongs, he should be one-two, and that should get him there.”

Sadler’s comments illustrate a truism of the points system Churchill Downs now uses to determine the field for the Derby should more than the maximum 20 horses enter – it is performance based. Run well in your final prep, and you’re in, as with Florida Derby winner Constitution, who entered that race with zero points and emerged with 100. Run poorly in your final prep, and maybe you don’t belong anyway.

Candy Boy has improved with every one of his races. He took four starts to finally defeat maidens, then jumped up with an outstanding second-place finish behind Shared Belief, the subsequent division champion, in the CashCall Futurity to end his 2-year-old campaign.

It was after that race that Sadler and Searing decided to run him next in the Robert Lewis Stakes on Feb. 8, which was worth 10 points to the winner, and bypass the San Felipe Stakes on March 8, which was worth 50 points to the winner, and give him a brief freshening for the Santa Anita Derby.

Cairo Prince had a similar schedule at Gulfstream. He won the Holy Bull, skipped the Fountain of Youth, and was pointed to the Florida Derby, a race in which he was the heavy favorite.

The Santa Anita Derby looks like a tougher field than in the Florida Derby. Candy Boy, who has 10 qualifying points, won’t be the favorite, with that spot taken by San Felipe winner California Chrome (50 points). The field also includes Hoppertunity (55 points), the winner of the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn last month. On the Derby Watch future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form ’s national handicapper, those are three of the top six current choices for the Derby.

[Santa Anita Derby Day: Get PPs, watch Saturday's card live]

This is the second year Churchill Downs has used a points system, after relying on graded stakes earnings from 1986-2012. Under the old system, Cairo Prince would be in the Derby field, having banked significant cash by winning the Holy Bull and Nashua, and finishing second in the Remsen. But so would Rise Up, who won the Delta Downs Jackpot and was last in the Louisiana Derby.

The new points system greatly de-emphasizes 2-year-old racing, and puts a premium on races closest to the Derby. The second round of spring preps are worth five times the amount of the first round of preps, and the final round of major preps are worth 10 times the first round and twice the second.

The horses it potentially benefits are lightly raced horses who get good at the right time. While the money Constitution earned in the Florida Derby would have put him in the Derby field under the old system, too, the points system makes it easier for a horse like him to catch a horse like Cairo Prince, who has a big head start on earnings.

Constitution began racing earlier this year, and won a maiden and an allowance race before the Florida Derby. Social Inclusion, who runs in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on Saturday, and Bayern, scheduled to run in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn on April 12, have similar resumes. If they run first or second, the minimum number of points needed to make this year’s Derby will increase, making it harder for a horse like Cairo Prince to make the field.

“We’ve got one shot at it,” said Bob Baffert, the trainer of Bayern. “He’s got to win or run second.”

Owing to late defections, it took just 10 points to get into the Kentucky Derby last year. Perhaps that will happen this year. But relying on a one-year sample size would get one thrown out of a beginning statistics course. Barring numerous defections, the cutoff point should be much higher this year.

◗ Candy Boy drew post 6 in a field of eight that was entered on Wednesday. The field, from the rail out, is Rprettyboyfloyd, Friendswith K Mill, Hoppertunity, Big Tire, California Chrome, Candy Boy, Schoolofhardrocks, and Dublin Up. Jon White of Santa Anita made California Chrome the 6-5 morning-line favorite, with Candy Boy next at 9-5. Hoppertunity is the third choice at 3-1. No one else is less than 10-1.

Jeffrey Lux More than 1 year ago
Baffert should have given Indianapolis a chance at a prep race at route distance
Randy Atkins More than 1 year ago
How can this writer say that the S.A. Derby is a tougher field than the Fla. Derby ??? What set of PP's is he lookin' at.??? This S.A. Derby has only 3 horses that have a chance to win...the rest of this field may belong in a G3 every now and then....IMO very weak field for a one million dollar race....Cal Chrome should go wire to wire...maybe Candy Boy will catch him...Hopportunity won't be all out ..he's already in the Derby...Baffert will go easy on him just like he did with Silver Charm and Real Quiet.
Dave More than 1 year ago
The fact that the top 3 finishers from a recent MSW are in tells you all you need to know.
Becky More than 1 year ago
I like candyboy 1 or 2. He has speed & should go distance...workouts have been strong plus breeding should let him go distance with "citation" in his bloodline . Stevens & smith in the same race is always fun:)
Charles Sakach More than 1 year ago
I think Baffert realizes that Hop is his best shot at the Derby. Bob will send him early, just like Silver Charm. If he gets beat, Hop will still have the best tune-up going into the Derby as anyone. Personally, I never was on the California Chrome bandwagon. He didn't beat anyone in the San Felipe. We'll see tomorrow just what kind of horse he is.
Randy Atkins More than 1 year ago
cause Baffert has enough points for the Derby...he's gonna go easy on him and save him for KY. just like he did with Silver Charm and Real Quiet
Boyd Cord More than 1 year ago
Why did Baffert send Hopptunity to SA when he ran well at OP? To me that's the question that needs an answer.
Boyd Cord More than 1 year ago
I'm thinking Baffert thinks Bayern has a good chance to win at OP and he does not want Hoppertunity in the way
Tom Jicha More than 1 year ago
Hoppertunity has the points to get into the Derby already so he didn't have to ship cross country again. The goal is the Ky. Derby, not the Arkansas Derby. Bayern does need points and Baffert might feel he has a good gauge on what's at Oaklawn.
John Howland More than 1 year ago
...and it gives Hoppertunity and extra week before the Derby.
Mark More than 1 year ago
Keep the best in barn at home. Bayern a flier next week.
Ray Sousa More than 1 year ago
simple he has already shipped this horse 2x and did not want to do it again if he could avoid it.and since he has the points he can avoid it.
Boyd Cord More than 1 year ago
This is a big problem in horse racing. Everyone is concern about the health and safety of the horses, rightfully so. And we have a point system to get into the derby, Except now you have instances where owners/trainers are rushing horses into big races to get enough points to qualify. They should leave 1-2 slots open for the derby to be purchased in an action to the highest bidder instead of getting a horse hurt in a prep because he's not ready. I like to see horses run a long time. I hate 3 races and he's retired. That's why I pay so little attention to the prep races. Most of them I'll never hear from again.
ghost2_ More than 1 year ago
So you think selling starting Derby slots that might then be used on no-hopers is a good solution? Bizarre!
Ray Sousa More than 1 year ago
once you become more into the sport you will understand it better. Auctioning off derby berths would be a really bad idea on many levels. Some rich idiot might pay to see his $5 000 claimer run for example. it takes completion to determine who deserves to go in the derby whether through earning or points in prep races.
Ann More than 1 year ago
Rushing? Come on. Modern colts are so pampered they are soft and fat. Used to be, not much more than 10-15 years ago, the Florida and Santa Anita and Louisiana Derby winners were able to run in the Wood Memorial, the Arkansas Derby, or the Blue Grass as their final prep. They only raced 2-3 weeks apart and were fitter than anything that runs today.
Guy John More than 1 year ago
Really want Candy Boy to finish 2 or 3 because he's my derby horse. Stevens knows the goal is to secure 2nd or 3rd and leave plenty left. He's a great triple crown candidate because he's fast, he can rate, he's bred to go long and he can run on a fast or sloppy track. Very similar attributes to I'll have another and silver charm.
Matthew Ellis More than 1 year ago
Great Write up and similar analysis as myself. Best case scenario is a good PREP that leaves plenty in the tank for a FRESH horse. the distance ? appears to be an asset for Candy Boy has his Gallop outs have been sensational and when watching his last I saw SILVER CHARM exactly ( Weird ) Time will tell
Ray Sousa More than 1 year ago
this is a million dollar race and any horse might be dead or hurt the next day so they all want to win these races if he's on a big lead yes the jock will save some for the next but if its close they will be all out.
Mad Vaper More than 1 year ago
because he sits the trip is why he will win the Derby! hope you guys got him in the futures!
Becky More than 1 year ago
I like candy boy 1st or second..his breeding is interesting especially way back with triple crown great Citation. He should go the distance strong.
Dave More than 1 year ago
The horse has raced once this year. They're in this to win it. Yes, maybe Stevens eases up a bit if Chrome is just absolutely gone through the stretch, but there's 4 weeks to the Derby and CB needs to get everything he can out of his one real prep race. Not to mention, it's the SA Derby a million dollar race, you're nuts if you think their intention is just to finish 2nd.
m More than 1 year ago
What we're all forgetting is who needs points and who doesn't. If Espinosa is smart we won't see another monster performance by c.c. This should be a training exercise.....save the steam for may. Cc won't win bc he doesn't need too.
Lawrence MacSelwiney More than 1 year ago
I don't understand your reasoning regarding California Chrome. Art Sherman wants to go to the derby, but he's been doing this long enough to know that your horses next start may be his last. Trust me. They are not saving anything for the derby at the cost of the SA Derby unless something crazy happens. Victor's riding to win and Mr. Sherman trained Chrome to win. If this was a $200,000.00 race I might agree, but its for a million.
Aaron Wilson More than 1 year ago
Agreed. The best thing for cc would be to rate off the pace and inside horses again in the SA derby. If he does that and still comes 1-3, a 1-2 finish in the Kentucky derby is almost assured. Stay healthy cc.
Ricky Williams More than 1 year ago
C.C. will crush em Saturday. Stay with the mile C.B.
Chuck Seddio More than 1 year ago
hope the candy boy gets in. he will be pace comprimised in the santa anita derby over that speed favoring track,but if the candy boy gets the points watch out at churchill over a fair track and an abundent of speed. kinda reminds me of real quiet,whose performance in the santa anita derby was a beaten 2nd to indian charlie but on a fair track at churchill with a legit pace he crushed charlie. candy boy reminds me so much of real quiet. would love to see old man stevens get the chance at churchill with this horse
Lawrence Vaccarelli More than 1 year ago
and get that triple crown
Chuck Seddio More than 1 year ago
as long as desormeoux is not on board, 2 chokes in triple crown races
Guy John More than 1 year ago
Totally agree. Candy Boy/In Excess breeding is all distance. This is a perfect triple crown year too because this crop is so weak.
Chuck Seddio More than 1 year ago
it will be tough to catch cc on that strip,just he gets an easy clunk in 2nd,and he will be primed for churchill
Ann More than 1 year ago
Why are both the Stronach winter tracks so favorable to front-running types?
Becky More than 1 year ago
I think we will see the speed of indian charlie in candy boy tomorrow plus his big strength to go thedistance like indian charlie.....stevens the rider......luv this trip:)