04/02/2014 11:12AM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 2

Lynn Roberts/Hodges Photography
Vicar's in Trouble is back on the Kentucky Derby top 20 list after this victory in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby.


Vicar’s in Trouble and Toast of New York, both winners of major stakes races last Saturday, are the additions to this week’s Derby Watch top 20. Vicar’s in Trouble had been on the list in prior weeks but was squeezed out owing to a lack of Kentucky Derby qualifying points. He earned his way back onto the list with his victory in the Louisiana Derby. He is 15-1 on the future line for the May 3 Kentucky Derby set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form ’s national handicapper. The 100 points earned by Toast of New York in the United Arab Emirates Derby put him in the Derby field should his connections decide to come, so he deserves to be on the list unless they bow out. He is 30-1 on Watchmaker’s line, which now has a new favorite, California Chrome, at 6-1. Constitution, who won the Florida Derby on Saturday, is now the second choice on Watchmaker’s line at 8-1 after being 20-1 a week ago.

[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]


In Trouble and Strong Mandate were removed from the top 20. In Trouble was placed fifth after disqualification in the Louisiana Derby. He has just 10 points. Strong Mandate was removed owing to his current low points total (11), though he will have a chance to move back onto the list when he runs in the Arkansas Derby on April 12. Cairo Prince, fourth as the favorite in the Florida Derby and now in jeopardy of not making the Kentucky Derby field with just 24 points, went from being the favorite last week at 6-1 to 12-1 this week.

[DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | Candy Boy faces do-or-die situation in Santa Anita Derby]


The point values of the Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial (100 for first, 40 for second, 20 for third, and 10 for fourth) could propel horses not currently on the list into the Derby field. Bayern (Arkansas Derby next) and Bobby’s Kitten (Blue Grass Stakes) are former top-20 members who could rocket up the charts when they race next April 12.