03/07/2012 4:59PM

Kentucky Derby 2012: Who's hot and who's not for March 7


Bodemeister, the understudy for Fed Biz in the San Felipe Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita, and My Adonis, second to Hansen in the Gotham Stakes last Saturday at Aqueduct, are the two newcomers to this week's top 20 of Derby Watch. Bodemeister figures to get plenty of support in the San Felipe, part of the reason why Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form's national handicapper, has pegged him at 25-1 on his Kentucky Derby future line. My Adonis is 50-1 on Watchmaker's line. Hansen, the co-fifth choice on Watchmaker's future line one week ago at 15-1, is now the clear second choice at 6-1 following his victory in the Gotham.

Out of Bounds was taken off the list owing to injury, and Rousing Sermon was removed strictly to make room for Bodemeister. Rousing Sermon did nothing wrong. It was just a matter of him being the odd horse out this week. Fed Biz, 12-1 last week, is now 20-1 on Watchmaker's line because of his absence from the San Felipe. As good as he may be, Fed Biz still has no graded stakes earnings, and the clock is ticking.

Rousing Sermon obviously would move right back on the list with a strong performance in the San Felipe. With both the San Felipe and the Tampa Bay Derby -- both two-turn races on dirt - being run this weekend, there will opportunities for others to leap onto the list.

[DERBY WATCH: Top 20 Contenders | BC Juvenile looking key]


Don Passidomo More than 1 year ago
JP: Couldn't agree more with you regarding "Gemologist", MW still has his head in the sand on this guy...next Saturday all he needs to do is show up, if he does, and he doesn't need to win, just run a good race, that is why at present I do believe he is the only horse that may be crossing the KD wire before UR...he has run as good if not better than all of them at CD, can run all day, and has won all of his races "driving", and I understand you can't move him up any til "The Rebel" race. Keep on watching his workouts til then MW..humble pie awaits your future on this assessment. Don
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
CREATIVE CAUSE : I have been wondering why Harrington did not consider the option of the TAMPA BAY DERBY or the REBEL for CREATIVE CAUSE knowing that EMPIRE WAY needs the graded earnings to make the DERBY . In my opinion : CREATIVE CAUSE " Does Not Have To WIN or PLACE " in either of his next two outings to make the KENTUCKY DERBY . But CREATIVE CAUSE ( L O O K S SO F I T ) at this point , that at this 1 1/16 Distance : By Seeing UNION RAGS and HANSEN thus far , LOOK OUT