The strategy for Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Ultra Pick Six with a $2.5 million-guaranteed pool is pretty simple: Survive and advance through the first four legs, and get to a pair of imposing favorites at the end – Toronado (#5) in the Mile, and Shared Belief (#6) in the Classic.
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To get there, this is the plan:
You can look at the Turf Sprint two ways: a chance to reap profits sown by chaos, or a serious drag on a pick four ticket with a reasonable budget. I’ve got eight Turf Sprint horses on this ticket – 3 As, 3 Bs, 2 Cs – and still that doesn’t feel like enough. To keep the price tag from rising too high, hard stands are taken in both the Filly and Mare Turf and the Filly and Mare Sprint. Single As in both races keeps the all-A portion to a mere $4.50, and I plan to hit it two or three times.
Race 4 – Juvenile Filliies
For those licking their wounds after a busy two days of Breeders’ Cup involvement, the good news is the sun comes up the next day, and there likely are some wagering opportunities to be found. That may be the case here.
Success for me Sunday here likely hinges on my assessment of three key horses on the card. They’re spread out, so they not only can be used for in-race wagers but give you key horses for the various multi-race wagers.
Showery forecast
A forecast for chilly northeasterly winds and a 60 percent chance of showers means handicappers may have to adjust on the fly through Saturday’s nine-race card, which gets started at 1 p.m. Eastern.
First post reverts back to 12:20 p.m. Sunday, following the switch back to standard time.
Three races are scheduled for the grass at 1 1/16 miles – the first, third and fifth. In the event of a switch to the main track, all three would shorten up to a flat mile out of the chute.
Last stakes chance for 3-year-olds
Four of the leading local jockeys - Patrick Husbands, Eurico da Silva, Jesse Campbell, and Gary Boulanger - are riding in Breeders’ Cup races on Saturday at Santa Anita, which explains the numerous changes on this card
Display Stakes
Carded as race 4, the Display Stakes kicks off the early pick four, which has a guaranteed pool of $100,000.
I think four horses can win the $3 million Breeders’ Cup Turf. TELESCOPE and FLINTSHIRE are high-quality Europeans that deserve to be favorites. MAIN SEQUENCE has won all three of his races in the United States, each a Grade 1, and he, too, can win. The fourth horse is HARDEST CORE, whose price will be higher than the other three, probably double Main Sequence’s and several times greater than the Euros’.
With American Pharoah out of the Juvenile, the focus of the race shifts toward the East Coast and specifically to the barn of trainer Todd Pletcher, who sends out two top contenders in DAREDEVIL and CARPE DIEM. Of the pair, Daredevil may have the most potential coming off a Champagne victory in which he absolutely cruised to victory with plenty left in the tank at the end. He has trained well up to the race, with the main caveat being the fact he has yet to try two turns. Carpe Diem, on the other hand, handled two turns nicely when winning the Breeders’ Futurity in handy fashion.
What a terrific sequence Saturday’s late pick four on the Breeders’ Cup card at Santa Anita is. There is a lot to sink your teeth into and a very real possibility, if you are right, to make a lot with a relatively modest investment. Let’s get into it.
Experience is important when competing over the unique downhill turf course at Santa Anita. Those in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint who have ventured down the hill include Reneesgotzip (5-1), who deadheated for second behind Mizdirection in last year’s edition of the race. She also was third in the 2012 renewal at Santa Anita.
Sweet Swap (12-1) has been idle since his front-running score April 13 in the Grade 3 San Simeon. He is 4 for 8 going down the hill, which includes one other stakes success.