Two Weeks Off (#4, ML 9-5) returns in Saturday's third race at Belmont Park, the 1 1/8-mile Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes. It will be his first start since a first-place finish by 6 1/2 lengths in an allowance April 4 at Keeneland. The fourth-, fifth, and sixth-place finishers from that race came back to win their next starts.
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I’ll take a shot at the pick five by singling the Brothers Desormeaux in Race 4 as they team together with ATTACK (2), a $40,000 maiden claimer dropping from the maiden special weight ranks and into a soft spot while appearing to have an edge in Beyer Speed Figures, post position, and tactics. That reduces the spread to four races and a number of “go-againsts” who might produce a big payoff if they all get beat, as hoped.
The theme for this day is going with the hot horse. There are three runners on today’s card who come here sharp and seem well positioned to continue their good form, giving you some options for key horses in your in-race and multirace wagers.
Race 2
Saturday’s card at Santa Anita lost a bit of its luster when champion Beholder came down with a fever and had to be scratched from the Grade I Vanity, but it’s still a nice card that provides a few decent opportunities for the wagering public.
RACE 1
Some big fields early on the card give an early pick three (races 2-4) some appeal, particularly because race 5, the Grade 1 Vanity, will apparently be reduced to a field a four. Beholder will reportedly scratch, leaving a very short-priced favorite in Warren’s Veneda. That makes the pick threes involving that race less attractive.
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Race 2
Among a five-horse Peter Pan Stakes in race 3 (I like Wolf Man Rocket, but really, what kind of price could I possibly get?), a Ruffian Stakes in race 4 that also has only five betting interests, and Colonel Juanita and Darling Bridezilla looking strong in race 5, the early part of Belmont’s 10- race card on Saturday appears as though it could be chalky. For that reason, I will be focusing on the last half of the card, starting in race 6.
Belmont’s Saturday card features four graded stakes races, including the Peter Pan for 3-year-olds and the Ruffian for fillies and mares. With the two main turf races carded as part of the late pick four, I’ll bet that wager with a base bet of 50 cents and a budget of $100.
Race 7 – Beaugay Stakes
Govenor Charlie (#2, ML 8-5) starts for the first time since April 13, 2014, in Friday’s fourth race at Santa Anita, a 1 1/16-mile optional claimer. Trainer Bob Baffert is winning at a 30 percent clip when saddling a horse coming off a layoff longer than 180 days, for a return on investment of $2.33.
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Discreetly Elusive (#6, ML 7-2) returns in Friday’s fourth race at Belmont Park, a six-furlong optional claimer. It will be her first start since a fourth-place finish by 4 3/4 lengths in an optional claimer Feb. 4 at Gulfstream Park. The first- and second-place finishers from that race came back to win their next starts.
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