There’s a simple approach to the Pimlico double linking the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes on Friday and the Preakness on Saturday, and there’s a complex one. The easy route would be to stand firm with the strong favorites, LUMINANCE in the Black-Eyed Susan and AMERICAN PHAROAH in the Preakness. But, we’ll dig a little deeper:
FRIDAY
Black-Eyed Susan, Race 11
Handicappers Matt Bernier and Kenny Peck are going head to head with $500 to wager on the Black-Eyed Susan Day card at Pimlico.
Matt Bernier and I will lace them up again after a forgettable Kentucky Derby weekend. With fresh loaves of $500 apiece each day, we will go through the cards on Friday and Saturday and come up with some plays. Here are mine:
This is a salty pick four sequence. It features four stakes races, three graded events, and full competitive fields. It also boasts a guaranteed $250,000 pool with a 50-cent minimum bet. I decided to find one single so that I could spread in the other races. Let's take a peek.
Race 8 - Miss Preakness Stakes
The pick five at Pimlico has just a 12 percent takeout, per statistics from The Horseplayers Association of North America, and that makes it an intriguing wager Friday on Black-Eyed Susan Day.
And for those that like guaranteed pools – personally they don’t mean anything to me unless I think a track will fall short of its guaranteed minimum - Pimlico is assuring a pool of at least $250,000 for the wager.
Here’s a look at the pick five races that begin on race 7.
Abtaal (#10, ML 6-1) runs for the first time since Feb. 22, 2014, in Thursday’s eighth race at Belmont Park, a 1 1/8-mile optional claimer on turf. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is winning at a 38 percent clip when saddling a horse coming off a layoff longer than 180 days, for a return on investment of $3.52.
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Unusually Big (#9, ML 7-2) makes his return in Thursday’s eighth race at Santa Anita, a one-mile maiden claimer on turf. It will be his first start since a third-place finish by five lengths in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight race on turf April 17 at Golden Gate. The fourth- and fifth-place finishers from that race came back to win their next starts.
Race 2
Will use DON’TFORGETABOUTME as a single on one ticket, then spread on a backup ticket with RACHEL WALL, who already owns a win over the track and figures to improve with only two races under her belt; LASAMANAMAMA, a three-time winner at the distance coming off a subpar effort in the mud; and SAMANTHA NICOLE, CAYMAN CROC and WE’LL TALK.
1. Dortmund
2. American Pharoah
3. Firing Line
4. Danzig Moon
With only eight horses in the Preakness, three of whom seem overmatched, bettors shouldn’t anticipate any blowup payoffs. But that is not to say there isn’t a potential overlay. If the betting goes as expected, DORTMUND might start a tick or two higher on the board than he should.
