AMERICAN PHAROAH took blinkers off after his debut and has since won six races in a row – five of them Grade 1 stakes – at distances ranging from seven to 10 furlongs. Along the way, he has beaten everyone in this field at least once by margins of three to 12 lengths. These accomplishments have been delivered with push-button tractability. He won the Kentucky Derby from post 15 with an outside stalking trip; he won the stormy Preakness by gunning to the lead from a waterlogged rail, switching off for a breather down the backstretch and galloping away again late.
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DRF Past Performances
1. Materiality
2. Frosted
3. American Pharoah
4. Keen Ice
Five weeks ago, MATERIALITY was my value-based choice to win the Kentucky Derby, and I disappointedly watched him lose all chance when he broke slowly and was shuffled back shortly thereafter while along the inside. Unaccustomed to racing from well off the pace and taking dirt behind horses, he struggled passing the stands for the first time, with his feet going up and down as if running uphill – known as “climbing” in racing terminology.
Not many 3-year-olds – maiden or otherwise – at the Keeneland spring meet were as impressive as SPEIGHTSTER was in winning an April 17 maiden special weight race by open lengths. Been eagerly waiting his return for WinStar and Bill Mott,and will be singling him in race 2 to start off the pick four (and if by some small chance he gets beat, you can always go back in on race 3 with a similar pick three ticket).
Trainer Kieron Magee saddles Chief of Command (#1, ML 5-1) in Wednesday’s sixth race at Penn National, a six-furlong allowance. Since Jan. 1, 2014, Magee is winning at a 27 percent clip in dirt races, for a return on investment of $2.15.
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Ray Knows (#5, ML 2-1) returns in Wednesday’s seventh race at Delaware Park, a six-furlong maiden special weight race. It will be his first start since finishing third by a head in a maiden special weight race March 29 at Fair Grounds. The fourth- and fifth-place finishers from that race came back to win their next starts.
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Two big days of racing at Belmont offer large fields and quality horses. First, let’s look at Friday’s card, where there are a lot of betting opportunities, and we’ll use DRF Formulator to find a couple to play as well as a couple to avoid.
Race 4 – stakes, 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt
I will not play, nor can I endorse playing, the pick five or the early pick four Thursday at Belmont Park, and that is because of the placement of race 4.
The fourth race Thursday, a straight maiden sprint, drew a field of 12, including an entry. Seven of the 12 are first-time starters, and the five who have raced aren’t particularly imposing.
ELMONT, N.Y. – Bob Baffert knows how to train a Triple Crown winner.
He hasn’t done it yet, but Silver Charm in 1997 ran a winning race in the Belmont, and so did Real Quiet the next year. War Emblem, Baffert’s third would-be Triple Crown winner, lost the Belmont when he stumbled at the start.