ARCADIA, Calif. – Two small pick three wagers are the plays Sunday at Santa Anita. The initial wager (races 1-3) will single chalk and is a small $6 play. The next wager (races 6-8) singles a price horse and will cost $15.
Race 1
HEAT DU JOUR (7) is the program favorite in this $25,000 claiming starter a mile on turf. She is the “most probable winner” on the card and an unimaginative pick three single.
Race 2
The Sunday card at Belmont is in danger of being greatly altered by the weather as heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected in the region Saturday night into Sunday morning.
I originally was going to play a pick four on races 6-9, but three legs of that series are on the turf, and the races could fall apart due to numerous scratches if grass racing is canceled.
Instead, I’m going to put together a pick three ticket on races 5-7.
Race 5 (3:24)
This is a $25,000 maiden-claiming race for New York-breds at six furlongs.
Incredibly, we haven’t lost a single turf race to wet weather since the meet began April 29, or one Triple Crown winner ago. That streak is likely to come to an end Father’s Day as the forecast says rain is just about a sure thing with a good chance for some significant thunderstorms.
This makes for some uncertainty as far as mapping out a strategy for the day is concerned, particularly as it concerns the four scheduled grass races – the third, sixth, seventh, and eighth – all of which are sprints, including both divisions of the New York Stallion Series.
It’s not often that there’s one horse on the card on which to key your day. Usually there are a couple runners that pique your interest, but Sunday’s Santa Anita card presents such a scenario where one horse can make or break your strategy.
There is a tough aspect to this, however. There are two juvenile stakes races (4, 8) that intersect a number of multi-race wagers, and those two races are full of question marks, and then there are a few maiden races late as well (7, 9), so multi-race wagers would have to take any and all into account.
Trainer Malcolm Pierce saddles Finn's Jewel (#3, ML 8-5) in Saturday's eighth race at Woodbine, a 1 1/8-mile allowance optional claimer on turf. Since Jan. 1, 2014, Pierce is winning at a 30 percent clip in allowances, for a return on investment of $2.73.
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Saturday’s card at Belmont features the Grade 3 Bed o’ Roses Handicap for fillies and mares traveling seven furlongs.
I'm going to key the following horses in multiple-race wagers and will play them to win if they meet my personal value line requirements:
Race 2 – Corner Three (#3, 5-1 morning line, 6-1 value line)
A couple big, competitive fields where you might find a price, and a potential key horse in the third leg give a late pick three (races 6-8) ample appeal Saturday at Santa Anita.
Race 6
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Trainer Jason Servis saddles Exclusive Strike (#9, ML 5-1) in Friday's fifth race at Belmont Park, a one-mile claiming race on turf. Since Jan. 1, 2014, Servis is winning at a 32 percent clip in claiming races, for a return on investment of $2.15.
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