Trainer Mark Salvaggio saddles Vicksburg Bluffs (#5, ML 7-2) in Wednesday's third race at Penn National, a six-furlong allowance. Since Jan., 1, 2014, Salvaggio is winning at a 37 percent clip when saddling a horse switching from turf to dirt, for a return on investment of $3.51.

Run Zippy Run (#1, ML 8-1) returns in Wednesday's 10th race at Kentucky Downs, a one-mile optional claimer on turf. It will be her first start since finishing first by a nose in an allowance July 25 at Ellis Park. The second- and third-place finishers from that race came back to win their next starts.

PERFECT ELLA
Trainer: Ralph Biamonte
Last race: Sept. 11, 5th
Finish: 1st by nose
Beyer: 54
After getting bet down to 2-1 in her debut, she started slowly and was taken up in the stretch while seeking room before closing in time in a six-furlong maiden special weight race. The big 2-year-old is a member of the lone Ontario-sired crop of grass expert Perfect Soul.

Saturday, Sept. 12

Belmont - Sands Point (race 9)

COMMENT: Sentiero Italia showed that the turf domain isn’t exclusively for the Euros as the American-based daughter of Medaglia d’Oro took what on paper appeared a brutally tough race and beat back some strong Euros to notch her fourth win in her last five starts. After two wins in the spring, she found Lady Eli too much to handle when fourth to that gal in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks but came right back to comfortably win the Grade 2 Lake Placid at Saratoga last month.

Trainer Phil D’Amato saddles Obviously (#1, ML 3-1) in Sunday's 10th race at Woodbine, the $1 million Woodbine Mile on turf. Since Jan. 1, 2014, D'Amato is winning at a 30 percent clip when saddling a horse coming off a layoff longer than 180 days, for a return on investment of $2.68.

It goes without saying that everyone in the game is thrilled with the great progress Lady Eli has made in her terribly unlucky bout with laminitis. Nevertheless, it remains impossible not to wonder what this brilliant, undefeated filly might have accomplished were it not for the random misfortune of stepping on an isolated nail. And that is because of what those Lady Eli crushed have gone on to do.

Lady Eli’s first start this year was a dominating score in the Appalachian Stakes. Left in her wake in that event were:

With heavy rain in the forecast for Saturday evening, I’m handicapping Sunday’s Belmont card under the assumption that races scheduled for turf will get moved to the main track. My pick three sequence (races 5-7) includes only one grass race.

Race 5: The trainers of the big dropdown horses all have good stats in that category, so I can’t eliminate any of them and will simply use all three: STAR DYNASTY (#3, 3-1), RIDING FIRST CLASS (#5, 7-2), and LITTLE MISS JULIA (#8, 5-2).

It is hard to resist the late pick four at Woodbine. It has a guaranteed pool of $500,000, and it includes the Grade 2, $300,000 Canadian for fillies and mares and the Grade 1, $1 million Woodbine Mile.

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Playing a pick three starting in the sixth race, trying to get some value around heavy favorite Dekalb County in the opening leg:

RACE 6: Going to use the favorite, DEKALB COUNTY, as a "B" only as there is a decent amount of speed in here despite the short field. FORTUITOUS PATH could fall into a nice stalking trip, and given that scenario, he may be able to run to his best figures, which are good enough to win this.
A's: 6
B's: 3
C's: NONE