In stark comparison to recent weeks, there is barely a national stakes schedule to speak of Saturday. The most important race of the day is the Grade 1, $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland. But as money goes, that is only the co-richest race of the day along with the $500,000 West Virginia Breeders’ Classic for statebreds at Charles Town.
Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup
Trainer Chad Brown saddles Strong Incentive (#6, ML 6-1) in Thursday's eighth race at Belmont Park, a six-furlong allowance on the inner turf. Since Jan. 1, 2014, Brown is winning at a 40 percent clip when saddling a horse switching from route to sprint, for a return on investment of $3.59.
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Aurora's Kid (#4, ML 6-1) returns in Thursday's seventh race at Keeneland, a 6 1/2-furlong allowance. It will be his first start since finishing second by 1 1/2 lengths in an allowance Sept. 7 at Delaware Park. The first- and third-place finishers from that race came back to win their next starts.
BROADWAY NIKA
Trainer: Peter Miller
Last race: Oct. 1, 4th
Finish: 6th by 16
Beyer: 57
This 10-time winner was simply overmatched in a $20K claiming race. He pressed the pace and faded. Claimed two starts back for $10K, he can drop in class and win next out.
CHEEKABOO
Trainer Brian Lynch saddles Malibu Charlie (#4, ML 5-2) in Wednesday's first race at Belmont Park, a seven-furlong claiming race on turf. Since Jan., 1, 2014, Lynch is winning at a 27 percent clip in claiming races, for a return on investment of $2.47.
TRUE ROMANCE
Trainer: Tim Hills
Last race: Oct. 4, 8th
Finish: 4th by 3 3/4
Beyer: 69
Making her first start since last winter, this 4-year-old filly put away two early challenges up front and maintained the lead to midstretch before fading in a preliminary allowance sprinter against favored Clothes Fall Off.
ON DRAFT
Trainer: Brian Lynch
Last race: Oct. 3, 7th
Finish: 5th by 1 1/2
Beyer: 71
He encountered significant traffic problems in the stretch while rallying in a seven-furlong allowance for Ontario-sired runners on the grass. A slightly longer distance is ideal for the son of Milwaukee Brew, and the surface doesn’t matter.
COMMENT: Overnight rains left a sloppy (sealed) track. Last seen winning the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien at seven furlongs at Del Mar Aug. 22, Appealing Tale today gave more proof of how dangerous lone speed can be. He bounced right out to a clear lead from his rail slot and set brisk splits, saw Tamarkuz moved closer turning for home, rebuffed that rival, opened up again, and kept Red Vine at bay through the final furlong.
There was a lot of hand wringing Saturday – and Friday, too – over the impact weather had on the conditions for the big Breeders’ Cup preps at Belmont and Keeneland. More than a few said if the weather isn’t similarly wet and dreary on Breeders’ Cup Weekend at Keeneland – which we hope it isn’t, of course – then all of these preps may not have taught us anything.
It goes without saying the rain in Lexington, Ky., and Elmont, N.Y., had to have an effect on the stakes races run on turf. But as silly as it might sound, I’m not sure the same was true for the preps run on dirt.
Trainer Ramon Preciado saddles Midnight Games (#7, ML 5-2) in Sunday's second race at Parx, a six-furlong claiming race. Since Jan., 1, 2014, Preciado is winning at a 50 percent clip when saddling a horse coming off a layoff longer than 180 days, for a return on investment of $4.15.
