ARCADIA, Calif. – Overlay possibilities Sunday at Santa Anita include a claiming filly in race 2, a first-time starter in race 3, and a maiden-claiming longshot in race 5. Those three are the focus of this handicapper’s plan of attack.
Race 2
ALOHA KE AKUA (7) had a ton of trouble in her most recent start two months ago at Del Mar, finishing sixth. She was claimed for $16,000 by trainer Bill Spawr. The race was a debacle for Aloha Ke Akua from the time the gates opened. Draw a line through it.
Let’s take a little shot at a pick three that looks fairly manageable in terms of the number of contenders while still offering the chance for some decently priced winners in the sequence.
RACE 4 – It’s tough to separate SOURCESANDMETHODS (4) and CLOWNEY (6), who were just claimed out of runner-up finishes. They look like the right ones in this low-level restricted claimer, and we’re not going to split hairs in this instance.
A – 4, 6
B – None
Trainer Danny Gargan saddles Dynamic Decision (#3, ML 5-1) in Saturday's fourth race at Belmont Park, a one-mile claiming race on turf. Since Jan., 1, 2014, Gargan is winning at a 25 percent clip when saddling a horse coming off a 31-60-day layoff, for a return on investment of $3.23.
The featured race Sunday at Belmont Park is a highly competitive running of the Grade 3 Knickerbocker for older turf routers, but that race is supported by several other interesting betting races. These are the races I am focusing on from a wagering perspective.
Race 3
It’s a nice card at Keeneland on Saturday with Sentiero Italia an extremely logical favorite to win the featured Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup on turf.
I'll key the following horses in multiple-race wagers and will play them to win if they meet my personal value line requirements:
Race 5 – Walker’s Way (8) – 10-1 Morning Line, 8-1 Value Line
Trainer Scott Becker saddles Wildwood Kantharos (#5, ML 5-1) in Friday's third race at Hawthorne, a six-furlong allowance optional claimer. Since Jan., 1, 2014, Becker is winning at a 34 percent clip when saddling a horse switching from turf to dirt, for a return on investment of $3.89.
That's Why (#10, ML 8-1) returns in Friday's 10th race at Keeneland, a six-furlong maiden special weight race. It will be her first start since finishing second by a half-length in a maiden race Sept. 12 at Churchill Downs. The third- and fourth-place finishers from that race came back to win their next starts.
We told you last week’s Pix was likely to be a mess, and it turned out to be that. Not much talent in a field that didn’t turn us on all that much, but it was the only alternative we had in keeping with our mission—to find first-time starters that looked like good choices based on the BreezeFigs profiles. Sometimes it works (like it did with Airoforce, whom we tabbed in his debut and who came back to win a Grade 3 on the weeds at Keeneland last week), and sometimes it doesn’t. In any case, there were a dozen BreezeFigs
RACE 5
LUCKY BRYAN (10) delivered an impressive performance winning his maiden Sept. 26 at Santa Anita, and there is no reason to believe he can’t come right back and make his first victory against winners a stakes win. After breaking sharply, Lucky Bryan rated kindly down the backside and into the far turn before angling outside and finishing nicely down the lane. The outside post will be an obstacle, but it shouldn’t destroy his chances of winning.