The pick four on Saturday’s card at Churchill Downs that ends with the 143rd Kentucky Derby is one that multi-race wager players must consider. Two turf races and two dirt races make up the sequence, and it looks as though it could be a lucrative one. Weather is going to be a factor, as rain rolled through the Louisville area Thursday and Friday, and Saturday’s forecast shows a 60 percent chance of showers during the day.
Race 9 – Grade 2 American Turf
Our Pick last week, Posse’s Paradise, broke last, couldn’t get her speed going until late but finished well enough to warrant a look at a mile. Otherwise, the news was good as the first BreezeFigs 2-year-old winner (from only four starters) came at Santa Anita as Sugar Queen ran away from her field.
Hardened horseplayers know that to survive long term in this game, you need to get value on your plays. That's all of your plays, including the Kentucky Derby. On the other hand, the casual sports fan simply wants to know who will win the race and isn't really interested in which horses are the best value plays. Hence the plight of the public handicapper, who tries to balance the two approaches.
ARCADIA, Calif. - One winning ticket was worth $439,362 in Thursday’s pick six at Santa Anita, a payout that included the single-ticket jackpot portion of the pool.
The jackpot portion had not been hit since April 6.
There was a carryover of $349,792 into the single-ticket pool from Sunday. Bettors added $138,071 on Thursday.
A sequence of beaten favorites led to the single winning ticket, although a victory in the last race by favored Kona Dreams clinched the massive payoff.
There are all kinds of wagering opportunities Friday and Saturday here at Churchill Downs. As always, picking the right pool in which to bet is as critical as any of your other wagering decisions.
Trying to leverage a strong opinion on Farrell in the Kentucky Oaks, I’ll go horizontal and wade into the late pick four (races 10-13) while hoping for something really good to happen to pad my Derby bankroll.
The road to the Kentucky Derby is rarely, if ever, a straight one. The only thing that varies from year to year in this aspect of the journey is how many unexpected detours arise, and how deep into the weeds those detours take us.
This year’s road to the Derby seemed active on both counts. It feels like there were more twists involving important horses than usual. And when things went wacky, it seemed like we wound up in some uncomfortably tall grass, like where someone who wronged Tony Soprano would end up.
Yes, post position influences the Kentucky Derby, and so does pace.
But estimating the degree of influence is no easy task. While basic considerations of condition, class, and speed figures are pre-race tangibles, the effect of post and pace are uncertain until after both gates open. The main gate is posts 1-14; auxiliary gate 15-20.
IRISH WAR CRY has done little wrong in his five-race career and enters the Kentucky Derby on the heels of an impressive score in the Wood Memorial on April 8 at Aqueduct. Conditioned by Derby-winning trainer Graham Motion, this son of Curlin rebounded nicely following a major flop in the Fountain of Youth on March 4 at Gulfstream. If a line is drawn through that non-effort, you’re left with a colt who is blemish-free and enters the biggest race of his life with the highest last-out Beyer Speed Figure in the field (101).
