Each week, TimeformUS Chief Figure Maker Craig Milkowski takes a look back at the weekend’s graded stakes and releases the TimeformUS Speed Figures for these races.
Saratoga
Grade 1 Whitney
1/2 119
3/4 132
Fin 134
Top 3: Gun Runner 133, Keen Ice 127, Breaking Lucky 126
Note: Half-mile in blue (slow pace) despite race allegedly having a rabbit entered; Gun Runner has seven consecutive race running a least a 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure
Saratoga | Race 7 | Post Time 4:24 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
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Race 7
Verdant Pastures (#6)
The Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner.
Ran very well when breaking her maiden, earning a competitive 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure.
DRF Formulator Fact: Over the past five years, Charlton Baker is 9 for 23 (39 percent, $2.86 ROI) with horses coming off layoffs of 90 to 180 days in dirt races on the NYRA circuit.
9-2 on ML
FLAMENCO DANCER
Trainer: Frank Huarte
Last race: Aug. 2, 4th
Finish: 3rd by head
Beyer: 59
She lacked room on the turn in the 3 path before closing widest to just miss in a $20,000 claimer. The erratic 4-year-old should clear the non-winners-of-three condition in her next few starts.
Saratoga | Race 7 | Post Time 4:24 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
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EXTRORDINARY JERRY
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Last race: Aug. 2, 3rd
Finish: 4th by 4 3/4
Beyer: 37
A debuting 2-year-old sprinting on turf, this colt lagged early and finished willingly in a respectable schooling run. Anticipate major improvement second time out.
UNION REBEL
Trainer: Richard Baltas
Last race: Aug. 2, 4th
Finish: 3rd by 1
Beyer: 78
Race 7:
Improv (#3)
Was setting fast paces (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs) in each of her last two starts.
The Pace Projector is predicting she will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner.
Seems to be in better form now as a 5-year-old.
9-2 on ML
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Can’t get any handle on Saratoga's race 1, a $12.5K claimer packed with droppers, so the pick five is out. And there are races in the later pick fours (6-9 and 8-11) that stop me. But the early pick four on races 2 through 5 looks potentially manageable, and I’ll take a swing at that, though I don’t love any single horse in the sequence.
Here’s the ticket I’ll play (caveman style today). It’s $60 per 50-cent increment:
Race 2 – 1,2,4,5,6
Race 3 – 3,6
Race 4 – 5,7,10
Race 5 – 2,4,7,8